1. FSV Mainz 05 2:2 VfB Stuttgart: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 07/03/2026 at 15:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

1. FSV Mainz 05 Home 2.84 xG · 18 shots

VfB Stuttgart Away 0.98 xG · 11 shots

22 1. FSV Mainz 05 had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

39' Jae-sung Lee 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.27 xG chance 1–0
76' Ermedin Demirović VfB Stuttgart · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
77' Deniz Undav VfB Stuttgart · 0.42 xG chance 1–2
90' Danny da Costa 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.69 xG chance 2–2

The shots behind it

1. FSV Mainz 05 VfB Stuttgart

Shots: 18; 11
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 14; 8
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.09
Open play xG: 2.40; 0.76
Set-piece xG: 0.59; 0.20
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.98 for 1. FSV Mainz 05 and 0.99 for VfB Stuttgart.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 3.95 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

1. FSV Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

1. FSV Mainz 05

2.08 xG created 1.09 xGA

W 4.04 created, 0.67 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
W 2.33 created, 1.43 conceded against RB Leipzig
W 2.31 created, 0.70 conceded against FC Augsburg
L 1.52 created, 1.80 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
D 1.53 created, 0.70 conceded against Hamburger SV
D 0.73 created, 1.23 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen

VfB Stuttgart

1.98 xG created 1.35 xGA

W 1.83 created, 1.17 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
W 1.62 created, 0.70 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 0.88 created, 1.77 conceded against FC St. Pauli
W 2.24 created, 1.59 conceded against 1. FC Köln
D 2.24 created, 2.04 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
W 3.06 created, 0.80 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

1. FSV Mainz 05: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

VfB Stuttgart 2:1 1. FSV Mainz 05 26/10/2025 xG 1.94 – 1.45

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.