1. FSV Mainz 05 3:1 VfL Wolfsburg: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 24/01/2026 at 15:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

1. FSV Mainz 05 Home 4.04 xG · 20 shots

VfL Wolfsburg Away 0.67 xG · 7 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

3' Mohamed Amoura VfL Wolfsburg · 0.31 xG chance 0–1
68' Phillip Tietz 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.11 xG chance 1–1
73' Stefan Bell 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.78 xG chance 2–1
83' Nadiem Amiri (pen.) 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.82 xG chance 3–1

The shots behind it

1. FSV Mainz 05 VfL Wolfsburg

Shots: 20; 7
On target: 9; 2
Inside the box: 16; 4
xG per shot: 0.21; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.75; 0.53
Set-piece xG: 1.74; 0.12
Penalties: 2; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.46 for 1. FSV Mainz 05 and 0.67 for VfL Wolfsburg.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 4.78 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

1. FSV Mainz 05
VfL Wolfsburg
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

1. FSV Mainz 05

1.10 xG created 2.27 xGA

L 0.97 created, 1.85 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
D 0.60 created, 4.50 conceded against FC Bayern München
D 1.12 created, 0.30 conceded against FC St. Pauli
D 1.01 created, 3.35 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 1.39 created, 1.55 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
L 1.52 created, 2.08 conceded against 1. FC Köln

VfL Wolfsburg

1.39 xG created 1.91 xGA

W 0.81 created, 1.92 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 1.72 created, 0.80 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 1.66 created, 3.53 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 1.36 created, 3.30 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 1.88 created, 0.89 conceded against FC St. Pauli
D 0.92 created, 0.99 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

1. FSV Mainz 05: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

VfL Wolfsburg 1:1 1. FSV Mainz 05 31/08/2025 xG 0.62 – 1.95

Model details

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The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.