VfB Stuttgart 2:1 1. FSV Mainz 05: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Sunday, 26/10/2025 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart Home 1.94 xG · 19 shots

1. FSV Mainz 05 Away 1.45 xG · 13 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

41' Nadiem Amiri (pen.) 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
45' Chris Führich VfB Stuttgart · 0.02 xG chance 1–1
79' Deniz Undav VfB Stuttgart · 0.51 xG chance 2–1

The shots behind it

VfB Stuttgart 1. FSV Mainz 05

Shots: 19; 13
On target: 8; 2
Inside the box: 12; 11
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.11
Open play xG: 1.54; 0.29
Set-piece xG: 0.36; 0.31
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.94 for VfB Stuttgart and 0.60 for 1. FSV Mainz 05.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 3.32 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

VfB Stuttgart
1. FSV Mainz 05
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

VfB Stuttgart

1.37 xG created 1.03 xGA

W 0.84 created, 1.82 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 0.53 created, 1.55 conceded against SC Freiburg
W 2.11 created, 0.95 conceded against FC St. Pauli
W 1.87 created, 1.13 conceded against 1. FC Köln
W 0.99 created, 0.38 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
W 1.90 created, 0.32 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg

1. FSV Mainz 05

1.36 xG created 1.73 xGA

D 1.95 created, 0.62 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
L 0.90 created, 1.79 conceded against RB Leipzig
W 2.52 created, 1.12 conceded against FC Augsburg
L 0.48 created, 1.44 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
L 0.67 created, 1.91 conceded against Hamburger SV
L 1.66 created, 3.48 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.