Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 15:30
Full timeBayer 04 Leverkusen 4:0 1. FC Union Berlin
Bayer 04 Leverkusen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Bayer 04 Leverkusen's attack: 3.11 xG against 2.03 projected (+1.08). 1. FC Union Berlin produced 0.39 xG against 1.18 projected (−0.79).
Goals
- 1' Ezequiel Fernández Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 0.35 xG chance 1–0
- 28' Facundo Medina Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 0.40 xG chance 2–0
- 48' Patrik Schick Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 0.57 xG chance 3–0
- 66' Ibrahim Maza Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 0.08 xG chance 4–0
The model against the result
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 57% What happened
- Draw
- 25%
- 1. FC Union Berlin
- 19%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Bayer 04 Leverkusen produced 1.08 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 21
- 5
- On target
- 10
- 0
- Inside the box
- 16
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 2.24
- 0.04
- Set-piece xG
- 0.73
- 0.38
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.95 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 0.41 for 1. FC Union Berlin.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 3.39 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 1. FC Union Berlin
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.54 xG created 1.94 xGA
- L 3.80 created, 1.33 conceded against FC Augsburg
- W 1.33 created, 3.04 conceded against 1. FC Köln
- W 4.42 created, 1.17 conceded against RB Leipzig
- L 0.54 created, 3.04 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
- D 3.27 created, 1.79 conceded against Hamburger SV
- L 1.88 created, 1.27 conceded against SV 07 Elversberg
1.89 xG created 1.68 xGA
- L 1.79 created, 0.19 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
- L 0.19 created, 4.49 conceded against RB Leipzig
- D 1.15 created, 1.75 conceded against 1. FC Köln
- W 2.68 created, 1.57 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
- W 3.68 created, 0.61 conceded against FC Augsburg
- D 1.84 created, 1.47 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin to win | 7.50 | +41.9% | Lost |
| Draw | 5.50 | +35.1% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.20 | +14.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +5.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 56.5% | 70.4% | −13.9 pp | 1.77 |
| Draw | 24.6% | 17.1% | +7.5 pp | 4.07 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin | 18.9% | 12.5% | +6.4 pp | 5.29 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 65.4% | 57.7% | +7.8 pp | 1.53 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.6% | 42.3% | −7.8 pp | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.6% | 86.4% | +0.2 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.4% | 13.6% | −0.2 pp | 7.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | 70.1% | −5.8 pp | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.7% | 29.9% | +5.8 pp | 2.80 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen sample
- 20 matches
- 1. FC Union Berlin sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 30 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.