Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 17:30
6d 4h to kick-offSC Freiburg – FC Schalke 04
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- SC Freiburg
- 57%
- Draw
- 25%
- FC Schalke 04
- 18%
| SC Freiburg | Draw | FC Schalke 04 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.75 | 4.06 | 5.47 |
- Total goals
- 3.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 5 outcomes.
-
SC Freiburg
- Model
- 57.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 57.8%
- Probability gap
- −0.7 pp
- Edge
- −8.6%
- Fair odds
- 1.75
- Market odds
- 1.60 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.84
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.1%
-
Draw
- Model
- 24.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 23.7%
- Probability gap
- +0.9 pp
- Edge
- −4.0%
- Fair odds
- 4.06
- Market odds
- 3.90 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.26
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.1%
-
FC Schalke 04
- Model
- 18.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 18.5%
- Probability gap
- −0.2 pp
- Edge
- −8.7%
- Fair odds
- 5.47
- Market odds
- 5.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 5.75
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.1%
Outcomes with value
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
FC Schalke 04 to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
Model 32.0% vs. bookmaker 29.1%, margin removed.
Match result
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
What the model's reading is made of
- The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches. Everything behind this edge rests on that, which is too little to set out as a reason.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | SC Freiburg | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | +0.64 | -0.78 from 4 matches |
| Goals scored minus expected | +3.13 from 4 matches | -2.28 from 4 matches |
| Points won minus expected | +0.96 from 4 matches | +1.33 from 4 matches |
| npxG per shot | 0.11 from 4 matches | 0.11 from 4 matches |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans SC Freiburg
57% SC Freiburg to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 15th
- SC Freiburg attack v FC Schalke 04 defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 14th
- SC Freiburg defence v FC Schalke 04 attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.64 vs -0.78
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 2.02 – 1.14
- SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SC Freiburg | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.22 · 4th from 4 matches | 1.32 · 15th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.91 · 2nd from 4 matches | 2.11 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.31 · 3rd from 4 matches | -0.79 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.26 · 3rd from 4 matches | 0.92 · 14th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.64 | -0.78 from 4 matches |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- SC Freiburg clean sheet
- 29%
- SC Freiburg 2+ goals
- 62%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.7%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Freiburg sample
- 20 matches
- FC Schalke 04 sample
- 4 matches
- Home xG sample · SC Freiburg
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Schalke 04
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Warnings
- FC Schalke 04 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.