Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 15:30
Full timeFC Augsburg 2:2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Bayer 04 Leverkusen's attack: 2.64 xG against 1.82 projected (+0.82). FC Augsburg produced 1.11 xG against 1.58 projected (−0.47).
Goals
- 18' Christian Kofane Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 0.20 xG chance 0–1
- 50' Michael Gregoritsch FC Augsburg · 0.54 xG chance 1–1
- 55' Michael Gregoritsch FC Augsburg · 0.08 xG chance 2–1
- 89' Patrik Schick Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 0.15 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- FC Augsburg
- 32%
- Draw
- 26% What happened
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 42%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Bayer 04 Leverkusen produced 0.82 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 8
- 30
- On target
- 5
- 5
- Inside the box
- 5
- 21
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 1.02
- 1.37
- Set-piece xG
- 0.08
- 1.06
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.09 for FC Augsburg and 2.42 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
38 shots · 3.53 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- FC Augsburg
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
2.07 xG created 1.84 xGA
- D 2.00 created, 1.11 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
- W 2.57 created, 1.35 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
- W 2.59 created, 1.14 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
- L 0.61 created, 3.68 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
- W 3.52 created, 1.54 conceded against FC Schalke 04
- W 1.13 created, 2.22 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
2.43 xG created 1.78 xGA
- W 1.33 created, 3.04 conceded against 1. FC Köln
- W 4.42 created, 1.17 conceded against RB Leipzig
- L 0.54 created, 3.04 conceded against VfB Stuttgart
- D 3.27 created, 1.79 conceded against Hamburger SV
- L 1.88 created, 1.27 conceded against SV 07 Elversberg
- W 3.11 created, 0.39 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg to win | 3.70 | +17.0% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.10 | +7.4% | Won |
| FC Augsburg 2+ goals | 2.20 | +6.2% | Won |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen at most 1 goal | 2.38 | +4.1% | Lost |
| FC Augsburg to score | 1.25 | +2.3% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.20 | +2.1% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | +0.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 31.6% | 25.6% | +6.0 pp | 3.16 |
| Draw | 26.2% | 23.1% | +3.1 pp | 3.82 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 42.2% | 51.2% | −9.1 pp | 2.37 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg to score | 81.8% | 75.0% | +6.8 pp | 1.22 |
| FC Augsburg not to score | 18.2% | 25.0% | −6.8 pp | 5.50 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen to score | 86.0% | 86.4% | −0.4 pp | 1.16 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen not to score | 14.0% | 13.6% | +0.4 pp | 7.16 |
| Both teams to score | 71.7% | 66.3% | +5.4 pp | 1.39 |
| Both teams not to score | 28.3% | 33.7% | −5.4 pp | 3.53 |
| FC Augsburg 2+ goals | 48.3% | 42.3% | +6.0 pp | 2.07 |
| FC Augsburg at most 1 goal | 51.7% | 57.7% | −6.0 pp | 1.93 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2+ goals | 56.2% | 60.8% | −4.6 pp | 1.78 |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen at most 1 goal | 43.8% | 39.2% | +4.6 pp | 2.28 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.7% | 86.4% | +2.2 pp | 1.13 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.3% | 13.6% | −2.2 pp | 8.81 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.1% | 70.1% | −2.0 pp | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.9% | 29.9% | +2.0 pp | 3.13 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Augsburg sample
- 20 matches
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 36 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 36 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.