Blackburn Rovers 3:1 Millwall: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Blackburn Rovers Home 1.23 xG · 18 shots

Millwall Away 1.67 xG · 15 shots

31 The result went against the chances

Goals

41' Oladapo Afolayan Blackburn Rovers · 0.21 xG chance 1–0
51' Lyndon Dykes (pen.) Millwall · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
58' Oladapo Afolayan Blackburn Rovers · 0.10 xG chance 2–1
90' Andri Guðjohnsen Blackburn Rovers · 0.24 xG chance 3–1

The shots behind it

Blackburn Rovers Millwall

Shots: 18; 15
On target: 4; 2
Inside the box: 8; 13
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.11
Open play xG: 1.01; 0.75
Set-piece xG: 0.07; 0.09
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.09 for Blackburn Rovers and 0.84 for Millwall.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 2.74 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Blackburn Rovers
Millwall
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Blackburn Rovers

0.94 xG created 1.51 xGA

D 0.84 created, 1.97 conceded against Wolverhampton
W 0.91 created, 1.43 conceded against Middlesbrough
L 0.92 created, 1.34 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
D 0.24 created, 1.46 conceded against Lincoln City
L 1.09 created, 2.19 conceded against Preston North End
L 1.62 created, 0.66 conceded against Sheffield United

Millwall

2.07 xG created 1.38 xGA

W 2.14 created, 1.09 conceded against Oxford United
W 3.40 created, 0.52 conceded against Bristol City
W 2.69 created, 1.02 conceded against Norwich City
L 1.35 created, 3.62 conceded against Southampton
L 0.23 created, 0.88 conceded against Wrexham
W 2.63 created, 1.15 conceded against Bolton Wanderers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Blackburn Rovers: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.