Watford 0:4 Burnley: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Watford Home 0.64 xG · 14 shots

Burnley Away 1.94 xG · 17 shots

04 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

13' Jacob Bruun Larsen Burnley · 0.09 xG chance 0–1
19' Zeki Amdouni Burnley · 0.36 xG chance 0–2
25' Reo Hatate Burnley · 0.07 xG chance 0–3
87' Marcus Edwards Burnley · 0.06 xG chance 0–4

The shots behind it

Watford Burnley

Shots: 14; 17
On target: 6; 8
Inside the box: 7; 12
xG per shot: 0.04; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.47; 1.78
Set-piece xG: 0.14; 0.13
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.61 for Watford and 1.89 for Burnley.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 2.51 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Watford
Burnley
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Watford

1.02 xG created 1.70 xGA

D 1.60 created, 0.89 conceded against West Ham United
L 0.88 created, 2.71 conceded against Swansea City
L 1.26 created, 1.14 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 1.44 created, 2.48 conceded against Preston North End
L 0.39 created, 1.50 conceded against Stoke City
L 0.57 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City

Burnley

0.99 xG created 1.72 xGA

L 1.38 created, 2.30 conceded against Norwich City
D 0.64 created, 1.22 conceded against Middlesbrough
L 0.26 created, 1.06 conceded against Bristol City
D 1.50 created, 1.35 conceded against Wrexham
L 1.73 created, 2.63 conceded against Swansea City
D 0.45 created, 1.75 conceded against Derby County

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.