Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 13:30
2d 15h to kick-offCharlton Athletic – Norwich City
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Top odds updated 21 October, 15:00
What the model expects
- Charlton Athletic
- 29%
- Draw
- 32%
- Norwich City
- 39%
| Charlton Athletic | Draw | Norwich City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.43 | 3.17 | 2.55 |
- Total goals
- 2.49
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
Charlton Athletic
- Model
- 29.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.9%
- Probability gap
- +1.3 pp
- Edge
- −3.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.43
- Market odds
- 3.30 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.60
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 31.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.1%
- Probability gap
- +4.4 pp
- Edge
- +7.2%
- Fair odds
- 3.17
- Market odds
- 3.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.33
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
-
Norwich City
- Model
- 39.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 45.0%
- Probability gap
- −5.7 pp
- Edge
- −19.5%
- Fair odds
- 2.55
- Market odds
- 2.05 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.67
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
Outcomes with an edge
Norwich City at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Biggest edge
Norwich City at most 1 goal
Model 60.2% vs. bookmaker 55.7%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Norwich City
39% Norwich City to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 22nd
- Norwich City attack v Charlton Athletic defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 23rd
- Norwich City defence v Charlton Athletic attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.89 vs -0.28
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.15 – 1.34
- Charlton Athletic v Norwich City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Charlton Athletic | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.00 · 21st | (better) 1.47 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.57 · 16th | 1.60 · 17th |
| xGD / match | -0.57 · 20th | (better) -0.14 · 14th |
| xPts / match | 1.00 · 21st | (better) 1.26 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.29 | -0.89 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Norwich City clean sheet
- 29%
- Norwich City 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.2%
- 1:2
- 10.0%
- 0:1
- 8.8%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Charlton Athletic sample
- 20 matches
- Norwich City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Charlton Athletic
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Norwich City
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 6 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.