Wednesday, 14/10/2026 at 20:45
Full timeNorwich City 0:1 Southampton
Norwich City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. Southampton won 1–0. The biggest difference was Southampton's attack: 2.34 xG against 1.27 projected (+1.07). Norwich City produced 1.07 xG against 1.50 projected (−0.43).
Goals
- 54' Kuryu Matsuki Southampton · 0.62 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Norwich City
- 41%
- Draw
- 30%
- Southampton
- 30% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Southampton produced 1.07 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 15
- On target
- 4
- 4
- Inside the box
- 8
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.19
- Open play xG
- 0.79
- 2.57
- Set-piece xG
- 0.25
- 0.27
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.08 for Norwich City and 2.86 for Southampton.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 3.88 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Norwich City
- Southampton
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.41 xG created 1.36 xGA
- L 1.44 created, 0.22 conceded against Stoke City
- W 3.04 created, 0.79 conceded against Sheffield United
- W 1.01 created, 1.63 conceded against Birmingham City
- L 1.62 created, 2.07 conceded against Middlesbrough
- L 0.69 created, 1.10 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- L 0.68 created, 2.36 conceded against Swansea City
1.38 xG created 1.50 xGA
- D 1.02 created, 1.55 conceded against Birmingham City
- D 0.77 created, 2.27 conceded against Lincoln City
- W 1.44 created, 1.22 conceded against Swansea City
- W 1.71 created, 2.24 conceded against Bristol City
- L 2.08 created, 0.54 conceded against Wrexham
- W 1.28 created, 1.18 conceded against Portsmouth
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 qualified edges flagged3 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | +9.6% | Won |
| Southampton at most 1 goal | 1.67 | +5.0% | Won |
| Draw | 3.50 | +4.1% | Lost |
| Southampton not to score | 4.00 | +0.4% | Lost |
| Both teams not to score | 2.63 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich City | 40.7% | 38.6% | +2.1 pp | 2.46 |
| Draw | 29.7% | 27.0% | +2.7 pp | 3.36 |
| Southampton | 29.6% | 34.4% | −4.8 pp | 3.38 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich City to score | 80.3% | 78.3% | +2.0 pp | 1.25 |
| Norwich City not to score | 19.7% | 21.7% | −2.0 pp | 5.08 |
| Southampton to score | 74.9% | 76.6% | −1.7 pp | 1.34 |
| Southampton not to score | 25.1% | 23.4% | +1.7 pp | 3.98 |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 64.5% | −2.7 pp | 1.62 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.1% | 35.5% | +2.7 pp | 2.62 |
| Norwich City 2+ goals | 45.6% | 48.5% | −3.0 pp | 2.19 |
| Norwich City at most 1 goal | 54.4% | 51.5% | +3.0 pp | 1.84 |
| Southampton 2+ goals | 37.0% | 44.3% | −7.2 pp | 2.70 |
| Southampton at most 1 goal | 63.0% | 55.7% | +7.2 pp | 1.59 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.6% | 81.1% | −0.5 pp | 1.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.4% | 18.9% | +0.5 pp | 5.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | 60.2% | −6.3 pp | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 39.8% | +6.3 pp | 2.17 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Norwich City sample
- 20 matches
- Southampton sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.