Middlesbrough 2:1 Birmingham City: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 08/11/2025 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Middlesbrough Home 0.61 xG · 8 shots

Birmingham City Away 1.20 xG · 13 shots

21 The result went against the chances

Goals

17' Dael Fry Middlesbrough · 0.08 xG chance 1–0
29' Demarai Gray Birmingham City · 0.18 xG chance 1–1
45' Hayden Hackney Middlesbrough · 0.10 xG chance 2–1

The shots behind it

Middlesbrough Birmingham City

Shots: 8; 13
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 5; 8
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.34; 0.98
Set-piece xG: 0.28; 0.24
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.20 for Birmingham City.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 1.83 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Middlesbrough
Birmingham City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Middlesbrough

1.21 xG created 1.03 xGA

L 1.00 created, 0.48 conceded against Portsmouth
W 1.86 created, 1.97 conceded against Ipswich Town
W 1.57 created, 0.70 conceded against Sheffield Wednesday
D 0.77 created, 0.68 conceded against Wrexham
L 0.79 created, 0.92 conceded against Watford
D 1.27 created, 1.40 conceded against Leicester City

Birmingham City

1.76 xG created 0.82 xGA

D 1.36 created, 1.74 conceded against Wrexham
L 2.85 created, 1.15 conceded against Hull City
W 0.83 created, 1.38 conceded against Preston North End
L 0.69 created, 0.27 conceded against Bristol City
W 3.11 created, 0.23 conceded against Portsmouth
W 1.74 created, 0.12 conceded against Millwall

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.