xgEdge

Tuesday, 21/10/2025 at 20:45

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Match report · Championship

Preston North End 0:1 Birmingham City

Preston North End Home 1.38 xG · 17 shots
Birmingham City Away 0.83 xG · 9 shots
01 The result went against the chances

Goals

  1. 33' Phil Neumann Birmingham City · 0.31 xG chance 0–1

The shots behind it

Preston North End Birmingham City
Shots
17
9
On target
6
2
xG per shot
0.08
0.09
Open play xG
1.00
0.36
Set-piece xG
0.35
0.46
Penalties
—
—

Preston North End's shots add up to 1.35 xG and Birmingham City's to 0.82; the published figures are 1.38 and 0.83.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

Birmingham City · Phil Neumann · 33' · Goal · 7 m · 0.31 xG Preston North End · Daniel Jebbison · 69' · No goal · 9 m · 0.28 xG Preston North End · Ali McCann · 24' · No goal · 5 m · 0.24 xG Preston North End · Lewis Dobbin · 86' · No goal · 12 m · 0.16 xG Birmingham City · Lewis Koumas · 35' · No goal · 15 m · 0.12 xG Preston North End · Alfie Devine · 67' · No goal · 15 m · 0.12 xG Preston North End · Daniel Jebbison · 30' · No goal · 8 m · 0.10 xG Birmingham City · Tomoki Iwata · 89' · No goal · 22 m · 0.10 xG Birmingham City · Tomoki Iwata · 62' · No goal · 5 m · 0.09 xG Preston North End · Michael Smith · 15' · No goal · 3 m · 0.09 xG Preston North End · Jordan Storey · 42' · No goal · 6 m · 0.08 xG Preston North End · Michael Smith · 83' · No goal · 13 m · 0.07 xG Birmingham City · Demarai Gray · 77' · No goal · 15 m · 0.07 xG Birmingham City · Jay Stansfield · 20' · No goal · 15 m · 0.06 xG Preston North End · Ben Whiteman · 45' · No goal · 24 m · 0.06 xG Birmingham City · Keshi Anderson · 58' · No goal · 11 m · 0.03 xG Birmingham City · Jay Stansfield · 61' · No goal · 22 m · 0.03 xG Preston North End · Thierry Small · 78' · No goal · 12 m · 0.03 xG Preston North End · Ben Whiteman · 43' · No goal · 25 m · 0.03 xG Preston North End · Michael Smith · 74' · No goal · 13 m · 0.03 xG Preston North End · Daniel Jebbison · 17' · No goal · 26 m · 0.02 xG Birmingham City · Tomoki Iwata · 13' · No goal · 23 m · 0.02 xG Preston North End · Michael Smith · 37' · No goal · 15 m · 0.02 xG Preston North End · Michael Smith · 87' · No goal · 21 m · 0.02 xG Preston North End · Michael Smith · 76' · No goal · 3 m · 0.01 xG Preston North End · Daniel Jebbison · 59' · No goal · 13 m · 0.01 xG

All shots

26 shots · 2.18 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

  • Preston North End
  • Birmingham City
  • Filled = goal
  • Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match
Preston North End

1.12 xG created 1.31 xGA

  • D 0.75 created, 1.52 conceded against Middlesbrough
  • W 0.90 created, 0.34 conceded against Derby County
  • D 0.42 created, 2.32 conceded against Bristol City
  • D 1.43 created, 1.82 conceded against Hull City
  • W 1.81 created, 0.54 conceded against Charlton Athletic
  • L 1.39 created, 1.30 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
Birmingham City

1.47 xG created 1.23 xGA

  • L 0.52 created, 0.49 conceded against Stoke City
  • W 2.41 created, 1.43 conceded against Swansea City
  • L 0.19 created, 2.13 conceded against Coventry City
  • D 1.47 created, 0.42 conceded against Sheffield Wednesday
  • D 1.36 created, 1.74 conceded against Wrexham
  • L 2.85 created, 1.15 conceded against Hull City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.