Saturday, 28/11/2026 at 16:00
37d 16h to kick-offMillwall – Burnley
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Millwall
- 49%
- Draw
- 28%
- Burnley
- 23%
| Millwall | Draw | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.04 | 3.58 | 4.34 |
- Total goals
- 2.87
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Millwall
49% Millwall to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 16th
- Millwall attack v Burnley defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 9th
- Millwall defence v Burnley attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.37 vs -0.44
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.71 – 1.16
- Millwall v Burnley
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Millwall | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.85 · 4th | 1.23 · 17th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.37 · 11th | 1.62 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.48 · 6th | -0.40 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.68 · 6th | 1.05 · 20th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.37 | -0.44 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Millwall clean sheet
- 29%
- Millwall 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.8%
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 2:0
- 8.3%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Millwall sample
- 20 matches
- Burnley sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · Millwall
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Burnley
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.