Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
2d 19h to kick-offLincoln City – Burnley
Model updated 21 October, 18:30 Top odds updated 21 October, 18:00
What the model expects
- Lincoln City
- 37%
- Draw
- 31%
- Burnley
- 32%
| Lincoln City | Draw | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.71 | 3.21 | 3.14 |
- Total goals
- 2.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 5 outcomes.
-
Lincoln City
- Model
- 36.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 31.4%
- Probability gap
- +5.6 pp
- Edge
- +10.8%
- Fair odds
- 2.71
- Market odds
- 3.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.84
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.2%
-
Draw
- Model
- 31.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.7%
- Probability gap
- +3.5 pp
- Edge
- +6.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.21
- Market odds
- 3.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.37
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.2%
-
Burnley
- Model
- 31.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 40.9%
- Probability gap
- −9.1 pp
- Edge
- −26.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.14
- Market odds
- 2.30 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.30
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.2%
Outcomes with an edge
Lincoln City to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Lincoln City 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Burnley at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Lincoln City to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Biggest edge
Lincoln City to win
Model 36.9% vs. bookmaker 31.4%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Lincoln City
37% Lincoln City to win
- Attack
- 18th vs 16th
- Lincoln City attack v Burnley defence
- Defence
- 15th vs 9th
- Lincoln City defence v Burnley attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.50 vs -0.44
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.34 – 1.24
- Lincoln City v Burnley
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lincoln City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.25 · 15th | 1.23 · 17th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.37 · 12th | 1.62 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.13 · 13th | -0.40 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.37 · 13th | 1.05 · 20th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.50 | (better) -0.44 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Lincoln City clean sheet
- 26%
- Lincoln City 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lincoln City sample
- 11 matches
- Burnley sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · Lincoln City
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Burnley
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 18:30
- Odds updated
- 2 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.