Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 16:00
16d 19h to kick-offCardiff City – Burnley
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Cardiff City
- 45%
- Draw
- 27%
- Burnley
- 27%
| Cardiff City | Draw | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.21 | 3.64 | 3.66 |
- Total goals
- 3.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Cardiff City
45% Cardiff City to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 16th
- Cardiff City attack v Burnley defence
- Defence
- 20th vs 9th
- Cardiff City defence v Burnley attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.69 vs -0.44
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.73 – 1.34
- Cardiff City v Burnley
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Cardiff City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.88 · 3rd | 1.23 · 17th |
| xGA / match | 1.63 · 19th | (better) 1.62 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.25 · 9th | -0.40 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.51 · 9th | 1.05 · 20th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.69 | -0.44 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Cardiff City clean sheet
- 23%
- Cardiff City 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.0%
- 2:1
- 10.7%
- 1:2
- 8.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cardiff City sample
- 11 matches
- Burnley sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · Cardiff City
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Burnley
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.