Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 20:45
12d 23h to kick-offQueens Park Rangers – Burnley
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Queens Park Rangers
- 48%
- Draw
- 30%
- Burnley
- 23%
| Queens Park Rangers | Draw | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.10 | 3.37 | 4.40 |
- Total goals
- 2.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Queens Park Rangers
48% Queens Park Rangers to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 16th
- Queens Park Rangers attack v Burnley defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 9th
- Queens Park Rangers defence v Burnley attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.23 vs -0.44
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.56 – 1.05
- Queens Park Rangers v Burnley
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Queens Park Rangers | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.50 · 9th | 1.23 · 17th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.20 · 7th | 1.62 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.30 · 8th | -0.40 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.61 · 8th | 1.05 · 20th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.24 | -0.44 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Queens Park Rangers clean sheet
- 32%
- Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 1:0
- 9.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Queens Park Rangers sample
- 20 matches
- Burnley sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · Queens Park Rangers
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Burnley
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.