Saturday, 21/11/2026 at 13:30
30d 16h to kick-offMillwall – Queens Park Rangers
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Millwall
- 40%
- Draw
- 30%
- Queens Park Rangers
- 29%
| Millwall | Draw | Queens Park Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.49 | 3.28 | 3.41 |
- Total goals
- 2.64
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Millwall
40% Millwall to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 6th
- Millwall attack v Queens Park Rangers defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 8th
- Millwall defence v Queens Park Rangers attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.37 vs +0.23
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.43 – 1.21
- Millwall v Queens Park Rangers
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Millwall | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.85 · 4th | 1.50 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.37 · 11th | (better) 1.20 · 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.48 · 6th | +0.30 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.68 · 6th | 1.61 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.37 | +0.24 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Millwall clean sheet
- 27%
- Millwall 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.4%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 8.5%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Millwall sample
- 20 matches
- Queens Park Rangers sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Millwall
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Queens Park Rangers
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.