Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 21:00
13d 0h to kick-offBirmingham City – Millwall
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Birmingham City
- 41%
- Draw
- 30%
- Millwall
- 29%
| Birmingham City | Draw | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.43 | 3.36 | 3.44 |
- Total goals
- 2.75
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Birmingham City
41% Birmingham City to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 11th
- Birmingham City attack v Millwall defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 6th
- Birmingham City defence v Millwall attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.86 vs +0.37
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.50 – 1.25
- Birmingham City v Millwall
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Birmingham City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.77 · 6th | (better) 1.85 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.23 · 8th | 1.37 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.53 · 4th | +0.48 · 6th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.75 · 4th | 1.68 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.86 | +0.37 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Birmingham City clean sheet
- 26%
- Birmingham City 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 2:1
- 10.5%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Birmingham City sample
- 20 matches
- Millwall sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Birmingham City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Millwall
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.