Millwall 3:2 Southampton: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 29/11/2025 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Millwall Home 1.83 xG · 21 shots

Southampton Away 1.20 xG · 11 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

55' Adam Armstrong (pen.) Southampton · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
72' Femi Azeez Millwall · 0.04 xG chance 1–1
81' Caleb Taylor Millwall · 0.04 xG chance 2–1
87' Finn Azaz Southampton · 0.06 xG chance 2–2
90' Tristan Crama Millwall · 0.07 xG chance 3–2

The shots behind it

Millwall Southampton

Shots: 21; 11
On target: 7; 8
Inside the box: 13; 9
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.11
Open play xG: 1.13; 0.31
Set-piece xG: 0.73; 0.11
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.83 for Millwall and 0.42 for Southampton.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 3.10 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Millwall
Southampton
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Millwall

1.46 xG created 1.02 xGA

W 1.51 created, 0.76 conceded against Leicester City
D 2.42 created, 0.63 conceded against Oxford United
L 0.12 created, 1.74 conceded against Birmingham City
D 1.82 created, 0.68 conceded against Preston North End
L 0.44 created, 1.59 conceded against Portsmouth
W 2.45 created, 0.70 conceded against Sheffield Wednesday

Southampton

1.83 xG created 1.51 xGA

L 1.67 created, 3.20 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
L 0.53 created, 2.24 conceded against Preston North End
W 0.68 created, 1.68 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
W 1.03 created, 0.81 conceded against Sheffield Wednesday
W 4.63 created, 0.67 conceded against Charlton Athletic
W 2.41 created, 0.44 conceded against Leicester City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.