Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeSwansea City 0:1 West Ham United
West Ham United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 1–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 34' Divine Mukasa West Ham United · 0.48 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Swansea City
- 31%
- Draw
- 31%
- West Ham United
- 39% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 9
- On target
- 0
- 4
- Inside the box
- 5
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 0.16
- 0.93
- Set-piece xG
- 0.84
- 0.23
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.04 for Swansea City and 1.19 for West Ham United.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
20 shots · 2.16 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Swansea City
- West Ham United
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.62 xG created 1.28 xGA
2.58 xG created 1.07 xGA
- W 3.79 created, 0.11 conceded against Derby County
- W 2.22 created, 1.56 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 2.96 created, 0.44 conceded against Wrexham
- D 1.87 created, 2.68 conceded against Millwall
- D 1.44 created, 1.27 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- W 3.20 created, 0.35 conceded against Lincoln City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
4 qualified edges flagged2 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.80 | +17.4% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +5.9% | Won |
| West Ham United at most 1 goal | 1.80 | +5.6% | Won |
| Swansea City to win | 3.30 | +0.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea City | 30.5% | 28.4% | +2.1 pp | 3.28 |
| Draw | 30.9% | 24.7% | +6.2 pp | 3.24 |
| West Ham United | 38.6% | 46.9% | −8.3 pp | 2.59 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea City to score | 73.5% | 70.9% | +2.6 pp | 1.36 |
| Swansea City not to score | 26.5% | 29.1% | −2.6 pp | 3.77 |
| West Ham United to score | 77.7% | 78.3% | −0.6 pp | 1.29 |
| West Ham United not to score | 22.3% | 21.7% | +0.6 pp | 4.49 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 57.7% | +1.2 pp | 1.70 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.1% | 42.3% | −1.2 pp | 2.43 |
| Swansea City 2+ goals | 35.2% | 35.5% | −0.3 pp | 2.84 |
| Swansea City at most 1 goal | 64.8% | 64.5% | +0.3 pp | 1.54 |
| West Ham United 2+ goals | 41.3% | 48.5% | −7.2 pp | 2.42 |
| West Ham United at most 1 goal | 58.7% | 51.5% | +7.2 pp | 1.70 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | 76.2% | +1.5 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.3% | 23.8% | −1.5 pp | 4.49 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | 54.9% | −5.3 pp | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.4% | 45.1% | +5.3 pp | 1.98 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Swansea City sample
- 20 matches
- West Ham United sample
- 10 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 59 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.