Millwall 0:1 Swansea City: xG & match report · Championship

Tuesday, 13/10/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Championship

Millwall Home 1.05 xG · 8 shots

Swansea City Away 1.83 xG · 14 shots

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Millwall were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. Swansea City won 1–0. The biggest difference was Swansea City's attack: 1.83 xG against 1.12 projected (+0.71). Millwall produced 1.05 xG against 1.54 projected (−0.49).

Goals

90' Ronald Swansea City · 0.38 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Millwall: 45%
Draw: 30%
Swansea City: 25% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Millwall 1.54 1.05 -0.49

Swansea City 1.12 1.83 +0.71

Swansea City produced 0.71 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Millwall Swansea City

Shots: 8; 14
On target: 3; 2
Inside the box: 6; 9
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.39; 1.04
Set-piece xG: 0.64; 0.75
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.05 for Millwall and 1.83 for Swansea City.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 2.82 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Millwall
Swansea City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Millwall

1.67 xG created 1.22 xGA

L 0.23 created, 0.88 conceded against Wrexham
W 2.63 created, 1.15 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
L 1.67 created, 1.23 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
D 1.69 created, 1.52 conceded against Middlesbrough
D 2.68 created, 1.87 conceded against West Ham United
W 1.09 created, 0.65 conceded against Preston North End

Swansea City

1.76 xG created 1.25 xGA

W 2.71 created, 0.88 conceded against Watford
D 0.74 created, 0.67 conceded against Wrexham
L 1.22 created, 1.44 conceded against Southampton
W 2.63 created, 1.73 conceded against Burnley
W 0.92 created, 2.11 conceded against Lincoln City
W 2.36 created, 0.68 conceded against Norwich City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Millwall: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Millwall against Swansea City before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Millwall 2+ goals	2.50	+17.3%	Lost
Millwall to win	2.38	+7.3%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.10	+7.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.80	+6.4%	Lost
Millwall to score	1.30	+5.5%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+5.0%	Lost
Draw	3.40	+1.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Millwall	45.2%	39.6%	+5.6 pp	2.21
Draw	29.8%	27.7%	+2.2 pp	3.35
Swansea City	25.0%	32.7%	−7.8 pp	4.00

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Millwall to score	81.1%	72.3%	+8.8 pp	1.23
Millwall not to score	18.9%	27.7%	−8.8 pp	5.30
Swansea City to score	70.7%	68.7%	+1.9 pp	1.42
Swansea City not to score	29.3%	31.3%	−1.9 pp	3.41
Both teams to score	59.1%	51.5%	+7.6 pp	1.69
Both teams not to score	40.9%	48.5%	−7.6 pp	2.44
Millwall 2+ goals	46.9%	37.5%	+9.4 pp	2.13
Millwall at most 1 goal	53.1%	62.5%	−9.4 pp	1.88
Swansea City 2+ goals	31.3%	33.7%	−2.4 pp	3.19
Swansea City at most 1 goal	68.7%	66.3%	+2.4 pp	1.46
Over 1.5 goals	78.8%	71.8%	+6.9 pp	1.27
Under 1.5 goals	21.2%	28.2%	−6.9 pp	4.71
Over 2.5 goals	51.1%	45.1%	+6.0 pp	1.96
Under 2.5 goals	48.9%	54.9%	−6.0 pp	2.04

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Millwall sample: 20 matches
Swansea City sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.