Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00
9d 19h to kick-offWest Ham United – West Bromwich Albion
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- West Ham United
- 53%
- Draw
- 29%
- West Bromwich Albion
- 19%
| West Ham United | Draw | West Bromwich Albion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.90 | 3.50 | 5.29 |
- Total goals
- 2.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans West Ham United
53% West Ham United to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 9th
- West Ham United attack v West Bromwich Albion defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 15th
- West Ham United defence v West Bromwich Albion attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.92 vs 0.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.65 – 0.96
- West Ham United v West Bromwich Albion
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | West Ham United | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.16 · 1st | 1.29 · 14th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.18 · joint 5th | 1.44 · 13th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.99 · 1st | -0.15 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.89 · 3rd | 1.25 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.92 | +0.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- West Ham United clean sheet
- 35%
- West Ham United 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.7%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 10.1%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- West Ham United sample
- 11 matches
- West Bromwich Albion sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · West Ham United
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · West Bromwich Albion
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.