Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeWest Bromwich Albion 3:2 Blackburn Rovers
West Bromwich Albion were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was West Bromwich Albion's attack: 3.68 xG against 1.22 projected (+2.46).
Goals
- 6' Andri Guðjohnsen Blackburn Rovers · 0.03 xG chance 0–1
- 12' Andri Guðjohnsen Blackburn Rovers · 0.22 xG chance 0–2
- 19' Barney Stewart West Bromwich Albion · 0.43 xG chance 1–2
- 72' Isaac Price (pen.) West Bromwich Albion · 0.82 xG chance 2–2
- 89' Felix Horn Myhre West Bromwich Albion · 0.57 xG chance 3–2
The model against the result
- West Bromwich Albion
- 41% What happened
- Draw
- 34%
- Blackburn Rovers
- 25%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
West Bromwich Albion produced 2.46 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 25
- 10
- On target
- 4
- 2
- Inside the box
- 19
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 2.35
- 0.30
- Set-piece xG
- 0.54
- 0.50
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.89 for West Bromwich Albion and 0.82 for Blackburn Rovers.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
35 shots · 4.51 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- West Bromwich Albion
- Blackburn Rovers
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.84 xG created 1.34 xGA
- W 1.14 created, 1.26 conceded against Watford
- W 0.38 created, 1.27 conceded against Derby County
- D 1.22 created, 0.62 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.29 created, 1.95 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 1.05 created, 2.55 conceded against Birmingham City
- W 0.94 created, 0.38 conceded against Wrexham
1.18 xG created 1.51 xGA
- L 1.09 created, 2.19 conceded against Preston North End
- L 1.62 created, 0.66 conceded against Sheffield United
- W 1.23 created, 1.67 conceded against Millwall
- D 0.59 created, 1.60 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 2.42 created, 1.05 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 0.15 created, 1.89 conceded against Bristol City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged0 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.40 | +15.3% | Lost |
| West Bromwich Albion at most 1 goal | 1.73 | +12.2% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.73 | +10.1% | Lost |
| West Bromwich Albion not to score | 4.00 | +6.7% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.20 | +4.6% | Lost |
| Blackburn Rovers to win | 4.10 | +2.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Bromwich Albion | 41.2% | 49.3% | −8.2 pp | 2.43 |
| Draw | 33.9% | 27.7% | +6.2 pp | 2.95 |
| Blackburn Rovers | 24.9% | 23.0% | +1.9 pp | 4.01 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Bromwich Albion to score | 73.3% | 76.6% | −3.3 pp | 1.36 |
| West Bromwich Albion not to score | 26.7% | 23.4% | +3.3 pp | 3.75 |
| Blackburn Rovers to score | 63.1% | 60.8% | +2.3 pp | 1.59 |
| Blackburn Rovers not to score | 36.9% | 39.2% | −2.3 pp | 2.71 |
| Both teams to score | 48.2% | 50.0% | −1.8 pp | 2.07 |
| Both teams not to score | 51.8% | 50.0% | +1.8 pp | 1.93 |
| West Bromwich Albion 2+ goals | 35.0% | 46.3% | −11.3 pp | 2.86 |
| West Bromwich Albion at most 1 goal | 65.0% | 53.7% | +11.3 pp | 1.54 |
| Blackburn Rovers 2+ goals | 23.1% | 26.9% | −3.8 pp | 4.34 |
| Blackburn Rovers at most 1 goal | 76.9% | 73.1% | +3.8 pp | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.3% | 70.1% | −2.8 pp | 1.49 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 29.9% | +2.8 pp | 3.06 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.3% | 45.1% | −8.9 pp | 2.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63.7% | 54.9% | +8.9 pp | 1.57 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- West Bromwich Albion sample
- 20 matches
- Blackburn Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 59 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.