Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
2d 18h to kick-offPreston North End – West Bromwich Albion
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Top odds updated 21 October, 18:00
What the model expects
- Preston North End
- 34%
- Draw
- 32%
- West Bromwich Albion
- 35%
| Preston North End | Draw | West Bromwich Albion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.98 | 3.15 | 2.88 |
- Total goals
- 2.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
Preston North End
- Model
- 33.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.0%
- Probability gap
- +8.5 pp
- Edge
- +25.7%
- Fair odds
- 2.98
- Market odds
- 3.75 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.13
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 31.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.8%
- Probability gap
- +4.9 pp
- Edge
- +11.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.15
- Market odds
- 3.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.31
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.5%
-
West Bromwich Albion
- Model
- 34.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 48.1%
- Probability gap
- −13.4 pp
- Edge
- −32.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.88
- Market odds
- 1.95 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.02
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.5%
Outcomes with an edge
Preston North End to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Preston North End 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
West Bromwich Albion at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
West Bromwich Albion not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Preston North End to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Biggest edge
Preston North End to win
Model 33.5% vs. bookmaker 25.0%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model can't separate them
35% West Bromwich Albion to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 23rd
- West Bromwich Albion attack v Preston North End defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 14th
- West Bromwich Albion defence v Preston North End attack
- Recent xG form
- 0.00 vs -0.57
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.25 – 1.27
- Preston North End v West Bromwich Albion
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Preston North End | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.24 · 16th | (better) 1.29 · 14th |
| xGA / match | 1.46 · 14th | (better) 1.44 · 13th |
| xGD / match | -0.22 · 16th | (better) -0.15 · 15th |
| xPts / match | 1.20 · 16th | (better) 1.25 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.57 | (better) +0.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- West Bromwich Albion clean sheet
- 26%
- West Bromwich Albion 2+ goals
- 37%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.3%
- 1:2
- 9.5%
- 2:1
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Preston North End sample
- 20 matches
- West Bromwich Albion sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Preston North End
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · West Bromwich Albion
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 3 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.