Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 15:00
33d 2h to kick-offAEL Limassol – Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- AEL Limassol
- 40%
- Draw
- 33%
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- 27%
| AEL Limassol | Draw | Enosis Neon Ypsona FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.48 | 3.07 | 3.69 |
- Total goals
- 2.33
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans AEL Limassol
40% AEL Limassol to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 9th
- AEL Limassol attack v Enosis Neon Ypsona FC defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 13th
- AEL Limassol defence v Enosis Neon Ypsona FC attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.42 vs -0.12
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.29 – 1.04
- AEL Limassol v Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | AEL Limassol | Enosis Neon Ypsona FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.46 · 9th from 4 matches | 1.36 · 10th from 3 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.42 · 5th from 4 matches | (better) 1.04 · 3rd from 3 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.04 · 8th from 4 matches | (better) +0.32 · 6th from 3 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.51 · 7th from 4 matches | (better) 1.62 · 5th from 3 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.42 | (better) -0.12 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- AEL Limassol clean sheet
- 33%
- AEL Limassol 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 1:0
- 10.3%
- 0:0
- 10.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AEL Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Enosis Neon Ypsona FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · AEL Limassol
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Enosis Neon Ypsona FC
- 1 match
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.