Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 18:00
6d 16h to kick-offAPOEL Nicosia – Nea Salamina Famagusta
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- APOEL Nicosia
- 54%
- Draw
- 29%
- Nea Salamina Famagusta
- 17%
| APOEL Nicosia | Draw | Nea Salamina Famagusta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.86 | 3.43 | 5.90 |
- Total goals
- 2.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans APOEL Nicosia
54% APOEL Nicosia to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 12th
- APOEL Nicosia attack v Nea Salamina Famagusta defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 9th
- APOEL Nicosia defence v Nea Salamina Famagusta attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.20 vs -0.69
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.57 – 0.84
- APOEL Nicosia v Nea Salamina Famagusta
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | APOEL Nicosia | Nea Salamina Famagusta |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.47 · 8th from 4 matches | 1.34 · 11th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.68 · 1st from 4 matches | 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.80 · 2nd from 4 matches | -0.69 · 13th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.97 · 2nd from 4 matches | 0.97 · 13th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.20 | -0.69 from 4 matches |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- APOEL Nicosia clean sheet
- 41%
- APOEL Nicosia 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.1%
- 1:0
- 11.9%
- 2:0
- 11.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- APOEL Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- Nea Salamina Famagusta sample
- 4 matches
- Home xG sample · APOEL Nicosia
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Nea Salamina Famagusta
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Nea Salamina Famagusta has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.