Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 15:00
Full timeBohemians Praha 1905 2:0 1. FC Slovácko
Bohemians Praha 1905 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Bohemians Praha 1905's attack: 3.70 xG against 1.31 projected (+2.39). 1. FC Slovácko produced 0.24 xG against 1.06 projected (−0.82).
Goals
- 19' Ladislav Almási Bohemians Praha 1905 · 0.19 xG chance 1–0
- 90' Šimon Černý Bohemians Praha 1905 · 0.70 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Bohemians Praha 1905
- 40% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- 1. FC Slovácko
- 27%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Bohemians Praha 1905 produced 2.39 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 4
- On target
- 7
- 0
- Inside the box
- 16
- 1
- xG per shot
- 0.20
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 3.28
- 0.19
- Set-piece xG
- 0.59
- 0.07
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.80 for Bohemians Praha 1905 and 0.24 for 1. FC Slovácko.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 4.13 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Bohemians Praha 1905
- 1. FC Slovácko
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.06 xG created 1.63 xGA
- L 0.73 created, 2.43 conceded against FK Teplice
- D 0.68 created, 0.83 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
- W 1.94 created, 0.84 conceded against FC Zlín
- D 0.81 created, 2.74 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
- D 1.75 created, 1.15 conceded against FK Jablonec
- L 0.42 created, 1.78 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
0.94 xG created 1.16 xGA
- D 0.53 created, 1.42 conceded against SK Líšeň
- L 0.58 created, 0.36 conceded against FK Jablonec
- L 1.04 created, 2.02 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
- L 2.18 created, 1.16 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
- D 0.41 created, 1.28 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň
- D 0.89 created, 0.70 conceded against FK Pardubice
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.40 | +9.7% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | +8.2% | Won |
| Bohemians Praha 1905 at most 1 goal | 1.73 | +6.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians Praha 1905 | 40.3% | 45.0% | −4.6 pp | 2.48 |
| Draw | 32.3% | 27.1% | +5.2 pp | 3.10 |
| 1. FC Slovácko | 27.4% | 27.9% | −0.5 pp | 3.65 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians Praha 1905 to score | 75.8% | 76.6% | −0.8 pp | 1.32 |
| Bohemians Praha 1905 not to score | 24.2% | 23.4% | +0.8 pp | 4.13 |
| 1. FC Slovácko to score | 68.3% | 66.3% | +2.1 pp | 1.46 |
| 1. FC Slovácko not to score | 31.7% | 33.7% | −2.1 pp | 3.16 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 53.3% | +0.4 pp | 1.86 |
| Both teams not to score | 46.3% | 46.7% | −0.4 pp | 2.16 |
| Bohemians Praha 1905 2+ goals | 38.6% | 46.3% | −7.8 pp | 2.59 |
| Bohemians Praha 1905 at most 1 goal | 61.4% | 53.7% | +7.8 pp | 1.63 |
| 1. FC Slovácko 2+ goals | 28.8% | 33.7% | −5.0 pp | 3.48 |
| 1. FC Slovácko at most 1 goal | 71.2% | 66.3% | +5.0 pp | 1.40 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.9% | 73.1% | −0.3 pp | 1.37 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27.1% | 26.9% | +0.3 pp | 3.69 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | 50.0% | −6.9 pp | 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.9% | 50.0% | +6.9 pp | 1.76 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bohemians Praha 1905 sample
- 20 matches
- 1. FC Slovácko sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 8 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.