Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 15:00
6d 14h to kick-offFC Hradec Králové – SK Líšeň
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Hradec Králové
- 48%
- Draw
- 31%
- SK Líšeň
- 21%
| FC Hradec Králové | Draw | SK Líšeň | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.08 | 3.27 | 4.72 |
- Total goals
- 2.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Hradec Králové
48% FC Hradec Králové to win
- Attack
- 13th vs 13th
- FC Hradec Králové attack v SK Líšeň defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 14th
- FC Hradec Králové defence v SK Líšeň attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.18 vs -0.70
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.48 – 0.95
- FC Hradec Králové v SK Líšeň
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 9 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Hradec Králové | SK Líšeň |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.03 · 14th | (better) 1.05 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.05 · 4th | 1.42 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.02 · 9th | -0.37 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.39 · 7th | 1.11 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.18 | -0.70 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- FC Hradec Králové clean sheet
- 36%
- FC Hradec Králové 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:0
- 10.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Hradec Králové sample
- 20 matches
- SK Líšeň sample
- 9 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Hradec Králové
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · SK Líšeň
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Warnings
- SK Líšeň has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.