Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 14:00
32d 9h to kick-offFC Zbrojovka Brno – Baník Ostrava
Model updated 6 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Zbrojovka Brno
- 46%
- Draw
- 29%
- Baník Ostrava
- 24%
| FC Zbrojovka Brno | Draw | Baník Ostrava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.16 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
- Total goals
- 2.70
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Zbrojovka Brno
46% FC Zbrojovka Brno to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 15th
- FC Zbrojovka Brno attack v Baník Ostrava defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 10th
- FC Zbrojovka Brno defence v Baník Ostrava attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.15 vs -0.35
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.58 – 1.12
- FC Zbrojovka Brno v Baník Ostrava
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 9 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Zbrojovka Brno | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.24 · 10th | (better) 1.34 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.52 · 13th | 1.89 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.28 · 11th | -0.55 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.33 · 9th | 1.02 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.15 | -0.35 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- FC Zbrojovka Brno clean sheet
- 29%
- FC Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 2:0
- 8.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Zbrojovka Brno sample
- 9 matches
- Baník Ostrava sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Zbrojovka Brno
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Baník Ostrava
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 03:30
Warnings
- FC Zbrojovka Brno has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.