Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 18:00
6d 17h to kick-offBohemians Praha 1905 – Baník Ostrava
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Bohemians Praha 1905
- 50%
- Draw
- 28%
- Baník Ostrava
- 22%
| Bohemians Praha 1905 | Draw | Baník Ostrava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.99 | 3.57 | 4.62 |
- Total goals
- 2.81
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 1 outcome.
-
Bohemians Praha 1905
- Model
- 50.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 44.1%
- Probability gap
- +6.2 pp
- Edge
- +3.1%
- Fair odds
- 1.99
- Market odds
- 2.05 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.09
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.7%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.8%
- Probability gap
- +2.2 pp
- Edge
- −1.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.57
- Market odds
- 3.50 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.74
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.7%
-
Baník Ostrava
- Model
- 21.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 30.1%
- Probability gap
- −8.5 pp
- Edge
- −35.0%
- Fair odds
- 4.62
- Market odds
- 3.00 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.85
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.7%
Outcomes with value
Bohemians Praha 1905 to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Best opportunity
Bohemians Praha 1905 to win
Model 50.3% vs. bookmaker 44.1%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Bohemians Praha 1905 to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The model makes Bohemians Praha 1905 to win 50.3%. The market, with the bookmaker's margin taken out, makes it 44.1%. The gap between the two is 6.2%.
- Czech First League carries more home advantage than most: the baselines the fit reads put a home side's expected goals at 1.29 times an away side's, against a median of 1.22 across the competitions the model fits.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Bohemians Praha 1905 | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | +0.33 | -0.35 |
| Goals scored minus expected | -2.08 | -5.05 |
| Points won minus expected | -1.52 | +0.81 |
| npxG per shot | 0.09 | 0.10 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans Bohemians Praha 1905
50% Bohemians Praha 1905 to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 15th
- Bohemians Praha 1905 attack v Baník Ostrava defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 10th
- Bohemians Praha 1905 defence v Baník Ostrava attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.33 vs -0.35
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.70 – 1.10
- Bohemians Praha 1905 v Baník Ostrava
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bohemians Praha 1905 | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.39 · 6th | 1.34 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.37 · 10th | 1.89 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.02 · 8th | -0.55 · 13th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.31 · 10th | 1.02 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.33 | -0.35 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Bohemians Praha 1905 clean sheet
- 30%
- Bohemians Praha 1905 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.1%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 8.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bohemians Praha 1905 sample
- 20 matches
- Baník Ostrava sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bohemians Praha 1905
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Baník Ostrava
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.