Baník Ostrava 0:4 Viktoria Plzeň: xG & match report · Czech First League

Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · Czech First League

Baník Ostrava Home 0.43 xG · 11 shots

Viktoria Plzeň Away 2.80 xG · 15 shots

04 The scoreline reflected the chances

Viktoria Plzeň were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Viktoria Plzeň's attack: 2.80 xG against 1.43 projected (+1.37). Baník Ostrava produced 0.43 xG against 1.31 projected (−0.88).

Goals

48' Adam Gabriel Viktoria Plzeň · 0.89 xG chance 0–1
56' Adam Gabriel Viktoria Plzeň · 0.33 xG chance 0–2
57' Lukáš Červ Viktoria Plzeň · 0.07 xG chance 0–3
80' Tomáš Ladra Viktoria Plzeň · 0.63 xG chance 0–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Baník Ostrava: 32%
Draw: 30%
Viktoria Plzeň: 38% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Baník Ostrava 1.31 0.43 -0.88

Viktoria Plzeň 1.43 2.80 +1.37

Viktoria Plzeň produced 1.37 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Baník Ostrava Viktoria Plzeň

Shots: 11; 15
On target: 1; 8
Inside the box: 4; 8
xG per shot: 0.04; 0.19
Open play xG: 0.39; 2.51
Set-piece xG: 0.04; 0.32
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.43 for Baník Ostrava and 2.80 for Viktoria Plzeň.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 3.26 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Baník Ostrava
Viktoria Plzeň
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Baník Ostrava

1.45 xG created 2.36 xGA

L 2.44 created, 3.10 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
L 0.85 created, 2.87 conceded against FK Jablonec
L 1.21 created, 2.33 conceded against FK Pardubice
D 2.57 created, 1.77 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
L 0.73 created, 2.51 conceded against Bohemians Praha 1905
D 0.90 created, 1.59 conceded against AC Sparta Praha

Viktoria Plzeň

1.62 xG created 1.50 xGA

D 0.21 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Hradec Králové
L 2.25 created, 0.60 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
L 0.82 created, 1.88 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
W 2.75 created, 1.57 conceded against Mladá Boleslav
W 1.05 created, 3.07 conceded against FK Jablonec
L 2.62 created, 0.98 conceded against FK Pardubice

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Baník Ostrava: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Baník Ostrava against Viktoria Plzeň before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Baník Ostrava to win	3.90	+25.1%	Lost
Viktoria Plzeň not to score	5.50	+18.2%	Lost
Viktoria Plzeň at most 1 goal	2.00	+14.4%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+8.2%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.25	+6.2%	Lost
Baník Ostrava 2+ goals	2.75	+5.5%	Lost
Baník Ostrava to score	1.36	+3.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Baník Ostrava	32.1%	23.5%	+8.6 pp	3.12
Draw	30.0%	25.5%	+4.6 pp	3.33
Viktoria Plzeň	37.9%	51.0%	−13.1 pp	2.64

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Baník Ostrava to score	75.6%	68.7%	+6.9 pp	1.32
Baník Ostrava not to score	24.4%	31.3%	−6.9 pp	4.10
Viktoria Plzeň to score	78.5%	82.8%	−4.3 pp	1.27
Viktoria Plzeň not to score	21.5%	17.2%	+4.3 pp	4.65
Both teams to score	61.1%	57.7%	+3.4 pp	1.64
Both teams not to score	38.9%	42.3%	−3.4 pp	2.57
Baník Ostrava 2+ goals	38.4%	33.7%	+4.6 pp	2.61
Baník Ostrava at most 1 goal	61.6%	66.3%	−4.6 pp	1.62
Viktoria Plzeň 2+ goals	42.8%	53.7%	−10.9 pp	2.34
Viktoria Plzeň at most 1 goal	57.2%	46.3%	+10.9 pp	1.75
Over 1.5 goals	79.8%	79.2%	+0.6 pp	1.25
Under 1.5 goals	20.2%	20.8%	−0.6 pp	4.95
Over 2.5 goals	52.8%	58.2%	−5.4 pp	1.89
Under 2.5 goals	47.2%	41.8%	+5.4 pp	2.12

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Baník Ostrava sample: 20 matches
Viktoria Plzeň sample: 20 matches
Computed: 16 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.