Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 17:30
24d 19h to kick-offLech Poznań – Wisła Kraków
Model updated 6 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Lech Poznań
- 47%
- Draw
- 29%
- Wisła Kraków
- 24%
| Lech Poznań | Draw | Wisła Kraków | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.12 | 3.51 | 4.11 |
- Total goals
- 2.82
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Lech Poznań
47% Lech Poznań to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 3rd
- Lech Poznań attack v Wisła Kraków defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 2nd
- Lech Poznań defence v Wisła Kraków attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.48 vs +0.72
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.65 – 1.17
- Lech Poznań v Wisła Kraków
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 9 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lech Poznań | Wisła Kraków |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.07 · 1st | 1.99 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.89 · 1st | 1.10 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.18 · 1st | +0.89 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.07 · 1st | 1.97 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.48 | +0.72 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Lech Poznań clean sheet
- 28%
- Lech Poznań 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.2%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 2:0
- 8.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lech Poznań sample
- 20 matches
- Wisła Kraków sample
- 9 matches
- Home xG sample · Lech Poznań
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Wisła Kraków
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 21:30
Warnings
- Wisła Kraków has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.