Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 14:30
21d 11h to kick-offNEC Nijmegen – FC Groningen
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NEC Nijmegen
- 46%
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Groningen
- 27%
| NEC Nijmegen | Draw | FC Groningen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.17 | 3.76 | 3.66 |
- Total goals
- 3.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score
- 69%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans NEC Nijmegen
46% NEC Nijmegen to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 8th
- NEC Nijmegen attack v FC Groningen defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 9th
- NEC Nijmegen defence v FC Groningen attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.45 vs -0.34
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.83 – 1.41
- NEC Nijmegen v FC Groningen
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NEC Nijmegen | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.60 · 8th | 1.54 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.92 · 10th | 1.93 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.32 · 9th | -0.39 · 10th |
| xPts / match | 1.18 · 10th | (better) 1.28 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.45 | (better) -0.34 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet
- 21%
- NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score: no
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.1%
- 2:1
- 10.6%
- 1:2
- 8.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NEC Nijmegen sample
- 20 matches
- FC Groningen sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NEC Nijmegen
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Groningen
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.