Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
NEC Nijmegen – PEC Zwolle
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NEC Nijmegen
- 58%
- Draw
- 24%
- PEC Zwolle
- 18%
| NEC Nijmegen | Draw | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.72 | 4.13 | 5.62 |
- Total goals
- 3.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans NEC Nijmegen
58% NEC Nijmegen to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 15th
- NEC Nijmegen attack v PEC Zwolle defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 16th
- NEC Nijmegen defence v PEC Zwolle attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.45 vs -1.08
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.05 – 1.14
- NEC Nijmegen v PEC Zwolle
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NEC Nijmegen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.60 · 8th | 0.94 · 17th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.92 · 10th | 2.06 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.32 · 9th | -1.12 · 17th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.18 · 10th | 0.73 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.45 | -1.08 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet
- 29%
- NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.5%
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 2:0
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NEC Nijmegen sample
- 20 matches
- PEC Zwolle sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NEC Nijmegen
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · PEC Zwolle
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.