Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 16h to kick-offGNK Dinamo Zagreb – HNK Rijeka
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- 36%
- Draw
- 34%
- HNK Rijeka
- 30%
| GNK Dinamo Zagreb | Draw | HNK Rijeka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.75 | 2.98 | 3.33 |
- Total goals
- 2.23
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans GNK Dinamo Zagreb
36% GNK Dinamo Zagreb to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 1st
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb attack v HNK Rijeka defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 2nd
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb defence v HNK Rijeka attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.19 vs +0.68
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.18 – 1.06
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb v HNK Rijeka
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.24 · 1st | 1.65 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 0.91 · 4th | (better) 0.77 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.32 · 1st | +0.88 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.23 · 1st | 1.96 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.19 | +0.68 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet
- 32%
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
- 33%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.3%
- 0:0
- 10.9%
- 1:0
- 10.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- HNK Rijeka sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · HNK Rijeka
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.