Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:00
31d 16h to kick-offNK Varaždin – GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Model updated 7 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Varaždin
- 31%
- Draw
- 33%
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- 36%
| NK Varaždin | Draw | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.23 | 3.03 | 2.78 |
- Total goals
- 2.33
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans GNK Dinamo Zagreb
36% GNK Dinamo Zagreb to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 4th
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb attack v NK Varaždin defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 5th
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb defence v NK Varaždin attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.19 vs +0.50
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.12 – 1.21
- NK Varaždin v GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Varaždin | GNK Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.41 · 6th | (better) 2.24 · 1st |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.88 · 3rd | 0.91 · 4th |
| xGD / match | +0.53 · 4th | (better) +1.32 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.80 · 4th | (better) 2.23 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.50 | (better) +1.19 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet
- 30%
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
- 35%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.1%
- 0:0
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 9.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Varaždin sample
- 20 matches
- GNK Dinamo Zagreb sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Varaždin
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · GNK Dinamo Zagreb
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.