Friday, 11/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeKV Mechelen 0:1 RSC Anderlecht
RSC Anderlecht were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was RSC Anderlecht's attack: 0.91 xG against 1.45 projected (−0.54).
Goals
- 43' Tawfik Bentayeb RSC Anderlecht · 0.27 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- KV Mechelen
- 27%
- Draw
- 31%
- RSC Anderlecht
- 43% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
RSC Anderlecht produced 0.54 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 14
- On target
- 4
- 3
- Inside the box
- 11
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.30
- 0.79
- Set-piece xG
- 0.89
- 0.10
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.23 for KV Mechelen and 0.91 for RSC Anderlecht.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 2.08 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- KV Mechelen
- RSC Anderlecht
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.07 xG created 1.72 xGA
- L 0.42 created, 1.52 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
- L 0.34 created, 1.16 conceded against KAA Gent
- D 2.75 created, 1.64 conceded against Standard Liège
- L 0.23 created, 1.44 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
- D 2.11 created, 2.17 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- L 0.58 created, 2.41 conceded against KVC Westerlo
1.46 xG created 1.04 xGA
- L 0.87 created, 2.40 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 3.05 created, 0.74 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
- L 1.27 created, 0.64 conceded against SK Beveren
- L 1.34 created, 1.60 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
- W 1.50 created, 0.46 conceded against KV Kortrijk
- D 0.70 created, 0.40 conceded against KRC Genk
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged2 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSC Anderlecht not to score | 5.50 | +14.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.70 | +13.6% | Lost |
| RSC Anderlecht at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +12.6% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | +10.4% | Won |
| KV Mechelen to win | 3.90 | +3.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | 26.5% | 23.7% | +2.9 pp | 3.77 |
| Draw | 30.7% | 25.0% | +5.7 pp | 3.26 |
| RSC Anderlecht | 42.7% | 51.3% | −8.6 pp | 2.34 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen to score | 70.6% | 66.3% | +4.3 pp | 1.42 |
| KV Mechelen not to score | 29.4% | 33.7% | −4.3 pp | 3.40 |
| RSC Anderlecht to score | 79.1% | 82.8% | −3.7 pp | 1.26 |
| RSC Anderlecht not to score | 20.9% | 17.2% | +3.7 pp | 4.79 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | 54.7% | +3.0 pp | 1.73 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.3% | 45.3% | −3.0 pp | 2.36 |
| KV Mechelen 2+ goals | 31.3% | 33.7% | −2.5 pp | 3.20 |
| KV Mechelen at most 1 goal | 68.7% | 66.3% | +2.5 pp | 1.45 |
| RSC Anderlecht 2+ goals | 43.7% | 53.7% | −9.9 pp | 2.29 |
| RSC Anderlecht at most 1 goal | 56.3% | 46.3% | +9.9 pp | 1.78 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | 78.3% | −1.3 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.0% | 21.7% | +1.3 pp | 4.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 56.3% | −7.7 pp | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 43.7% | +7.7 pp | 1.95 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KV Mechelen sample
- 20 matches
- RSC Anderlecht sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.