Lommel SK 0:0 KV Mechelen: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 20:45

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Match report · Jupiler Pro League

Lommel SK Home 0.48 xG · 8 shots

KV Mechelen Away 1.31 xG · 15 shots

00 KV Mechelen had the better chances, but it finished level

Lommel SK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Lommel SK's attack: 0.48 xG against 1.43 projected (−0.95).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Lommel SK: 43%
Draw: 31% What happened
KV Mechelen: 26%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Lommel SK 1.43 0.48 -0.95

KV Mechelen 1.08 1.31 +0.23

Lommel SK produced 0.95 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Lommel SK KV Mechelen

Shots: 8; 15
On target: 0; 4
Inside the box: 7; 11
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.40; 0.82
Set-piece xG: 0.07; 0.45
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.48 for Lommel SK and 1.31 for KV Mechelen.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 1.74 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Lommel SK
KV Mechelen
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lommel SK

1.02 xG created 1.54 xGA

D 1.49 created, 1.98 conceded against Sint-Truidense VV
L 0.34 created, 1.25 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
W 1.34 created, 0.66 conceded against KVC Westerlo
W 1.63 created, 1.25 conceded against Cercle Brugge
L 0.65 created, 0.80 conceded against Club Brugge KV
L 0.65 created, 3.27 conceded against Royale Union Saint-Gilloise

KV Mechelen

1.21 xG created 1.62 xGA

L 0.34 created, 1.16 conceded against KAA Gent
D 2.75 created, 1.64 conceded against Standard Liège
L 0.23 created, 1.44 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi
D 2.11 created, 2.17 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
L 0.58 created, 2.41 conceded against KVC Westerlo
L 1.23 created, 0.91 conceded against RSC Anderlecht

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Lommel SK against KV Mechelen before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
KV Mechelen not to score	3.75	+16.2%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	+14.4%	Won
KV Mechelen at most 1 goal	1.62	+13.9%	Won
Lommel SK to win	2.60	+12.3%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+5.6%	Won
Draw	3.30	+2.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lommel SK	43.2%	35.4%	+7.8 pp	2.32
Draw	31.0%	27.9%	+3.2 pp	3.22
KV Mechelen	25.8%	36.8%	−11.0 pp	3.88

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lommel SK to score	78.5%	75.0%	+3.5 pp	1.27
Lommel SK not to score	21.5%	25.0%	−3.5 pp	4.66
KV Mechelen to score	69.0%	75.0%	−6.0 pp	1.45
KV Mechelen not to score	31.0%	25.0%	+6.0 pp	3.23
Both teams to score	56.0%	57.7%	−1.6 pp	1.78
Both teams not to score	44.0%	42.3%	+1.6 pp	2.27
Lommel SK 2+ goals	42.8%	42.3%	+0.5 pp	2.34
Lommel SK at most 1 goal	57.2%	57.7%	−0.5 pp	1.75
KV Mechelen 2+ goals	29.5%	42.3%	−12.8 pp	3.39
KV Mechelen at most 1 goal	70.5%	57.7%	+12.8 pp	1.42
Over 1.5 goals	75.6%	78.3%	−2.7 pp	1.32
Under 1.5 goals	24.4%	21.7%	+2.7 pp	4.10
Over 2.5 goals	46.8%	56.3%	−9.6 pp	2.14
Under 2.5 goals	53.2%	43.7%	+9.6 pp	1.88

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Lommel SK sample: 6 matches
KV Mechelen sample: 20 matches
Computed: 12 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 12 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Lommel SK has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.