Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 18:15
26d 16h to kick-offStandard Liège – KV Kortrijk
Model updated 5 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Standard Liège
- 45%
- Draw
- 29%
- KV Kortrijk
- 26%
| Standard Liège | Draw | KV Kortrijk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.23 | 3.41 | 3.86 |
- Total goals
- 2.75
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Standard Liège
45% Standard Liège to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 12th
- Standard Liège attack v KV Kortrijk defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 14th
- Standard Liège defence v KV Kortrijk attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.11 vs -0.59
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.57 – 1.18
- Standard Liège v KV Kortrijk
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Standard Liège | KV Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.79 · 5th | 0.99 · 17th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.53 · 10th | 1.92 · 17th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.25 · 7th | -0.93 · 17th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.48 · 7th | 0.87 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.11 | -0.59 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Standard Liège clean sheet
- 28%
- Standard Liège 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.7%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 1:2
- 7.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Standard Liège sample
- 20 matches
- KV Kortrijk sample
- 7 matches
- Home xG sample · Standard Liège
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · KV Kortrijk
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- KV Kortrijk has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.