KRC Genk 2:1 Standard Liège: xG & match report · Jupiler Pro League

Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 13:30

Full time

Match report · Jupiler Pro League

KRC Genk Home 3.32 xG · 24 shots

Standard Liège Away 1.48 xG · 11 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

KRC Genk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was KRC Genk's attack: 3.32 xG against 1.85 projected (+1.47). Standard Liège produced 1.48 xG against 1.16 projected (+0.32).

Goals

27' Junya Ito KRC Genk · 0.92 xG chance 1–0
65' Andi Zeqiri Standard Liège · 0.50 xG chance 1–1
77' Aaron Bibout KRC Genk · 0.16 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

KRC Genk: 53% What happened
Draw: 26%
Standard Liège: 21%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

KRC Genk 1.85 3.32 +1.47

Standard Liège 1.16 1.48 +0.32

KRC Genk produced 1.47 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

KRC Genk Standard Liège

Shots: 24; 11
On target: 6; 2
Inside the box: 19; 10
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.13
Open play xG: 1.50; 0.44
Set-piece xG: 1.73; 1.03
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.32 for KRC Genk and 1.48 for Standard Liège.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 4.70 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

KRC Genk
Standard Liège
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

KRC Genk

1.57 xG created 1.14 xGA

D 1.30 created, 1.86 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
W 3.06 created, 0.61 conceded against SK Beveren
D 0.40 created, 0.70 conceded against RSC Anderlecht
D 0.94 created, 0.89 conceded against KAA Gent
L 1.96 created, 2.12 conceded against Club Brugge KV
W 1.78 created, 0.65 conceded against KV Kortrijk

Standard Liège

1.63 xG created 1.35 xGA

W 1.15 created, 1.07 conceded against RAAL La Louvière
W 1.36 created, 1.89 conceded against Oud-Heverlee Leuven
W 3.42 created, 0.83 conceded against Royal Antwerp FC
L 1.22 created, 1.41 conceded against KVC Westerlo
L 1.11 created, 1.30 conceded against KAA Gent
L 1.51 created, 1.61 conceded against RC Sporting Charleroi

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

KRC Genk: 0 won · 2 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 qualified edges flagged2 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on KRC Genk against Standard Liège before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.62	+2.4%	Won
Standard Liège to score	1.40	+0.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KRC Genk	52.7%	53.6%	−0.9 pp	1.90
Draw	26.4%	24.6%	+1.8 pp	3.79
Standard Liège	20.9%	21.7%	−0.8 pp	4.79

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KRC Genk to score	86.6%	84.2%	+2.4 pp	1.15
KRC Genk not to score	13.4%	15.8%	−2.4 pp	7.48
Standard Liège to score	71.5%	66.3%	+5.2 pp	1.40
Standard Liège not to score	28.5%	33.7%	−5.2 pp	3.51
Both teams to score	63.4%	57.7%	+5.7 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.6%	42.3%	−5.7 pp	2.73
KRC Genk 2+ goals	57.4%	57.7%	−0.3 pp	1.74
KRC Genk at most 1 goal	42.6%	42.3%	+0.3 pp	2.35
Standard Liège 2+ goals	32.7%	31.3%	+1.5 pp	3.05
Standard Liège at most 1 goal	67.3%	68.7%	−1.5 pp	1.49
Over 1.5 goals	84.1%	79.2%	+4.9 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.9%	20.8%	−4.9 pp	6.30
Over 2.5 goals	59.9%	58.2%	+1.6 pp	1.67
Under 2.5 goals	40.1%	41.8%	−1.6 pp	2.49

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
KRC Genk sample: 20 matches
Standard Liège sample: 20 matches
Computed: 59 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.