Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 14:00
Full timeLevante UD 0:2 Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Atlético Madrid's attack: 0.58 xG against 1.63 projected (−1.05).
Goals
- 36' Alejandro Grimaldo Atlético Madrid · 0.11 xG chance 0–1
- 62' Giuliano Simeone Atlético Madrid · 0.14 xG chance 0–2
The model against the result
- Levante UD
- 29%
- Draw
- 28%
- Atlético Madrid
- 42% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Atlético Madrid produced 1.05 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 11
- On target
- 4
- 5
- Inside the box
- 14
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 1.00
- 0.51
- Set-piece xG
- 0.27
- 0.05
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.25 for Levante UD and 0.58 for Atlético Madrid.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
31 shots · 1.83 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Levante UD
- Atlético Madrid
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.38 xG created 2.47 xGA
- L 2.42 created, 2.58 conceded against Barcelona
- L 0.45 created, 4.27 conceded against Villarreal
- D 1.95 created, 2.53 conceded against Sevilla
- D 0.83 created, 1.08 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña
- W 1.98 created, 1.90 conceded against Athletic Club
- L 0.64 created, 2.45 conceded against Real Sociedad
2.20 xG created 0.77 xGA
- W 2.05 created, 0.27 conceded against Real Sociedad
- W 3.97 created, 0.48 conceded against Osasuna
- W 2.35 created, 0.30 conceded against Real Madrid
- W 2.12 created, 1.09 conceded against Deportivo Alavés
- W 1.34 created, 0.53 conceded against Espanyol
- W 1.36 created, 1.95 conceded against Deportivo La Coruña
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 qualified edges flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD to win | 5.50 | +61.0% | Lost |
| Atlético Madrid not to score | 8.00 | +37.2% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.75 | +34.5% | Lost |
| Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +31.1% | Lost |
| Levante UD 2+ goals | 3.25 | +30.1% | Lost |
| Levante UD to score | 1.44 | +10.9% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +5.3% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | +2.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD | 29.3% | 17.2% | +12.1 pp | 3.42 |
| Draw | 28.3% | 19.9% | +8.4 pp | 3.53 |
| Atlético Madrid | 42.4% | 63.0% | −20.6 pp | 2.36 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD to score | 76.8% | 64.5% | +12.3 pp | 1.30 |
| Levante UD not to score | 23.2% | 35.5% | −12.3 pp | 4.31 |
| Atlético Madrid to score | 82.8% | 88.1% | −5.2 pp | 1.21 |
| Atlético Madrid not to score | 17.2% | 11.9% | +5.2 pp | 5.83 |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | 57.7% | +7.5 pp | 1.53 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.8% | 42.3% | −7.5 pp | 2.87 |
| Levante UD 2+ goals | 40.0% | 29.1% | +10.9 pp | 2.50 |
| Levante UD at most 1 goal | 60.0% | 70.9% | −10.9 pp | 1.67 |
| Atlético Madrid 2+ goals | 50.0% | 64.5% | −14.5 pp | 2.00 |
| Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal | 50.0% | 35.5% | +14.5 pp | 2.00 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.7% | 81.1% | +2.6 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.3% | 18.9% | −2.6 pp | 6.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | 62.0% | −3.0 pp | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.0% | 38.0% | +3.0 pp | 2.44 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Levante UD sample
- 20 matches
- Atlético Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.