xgEdge

Expected goals

Casa Pia expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Liga Portugal · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Casa Pia's attacking and defensive expected goals in Liga Portugal 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Casa Pia xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.89 xG per match
#15/18
Attack (xG per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Benfica 2.32
#2 FC Porto 2.26
#3 Sporting 2.01
#4 Vitória SC 1.77
#5 FC Alverca 1.40
#6 Santa Clara 1.35
#7 Gil Vicente 1.31
#8 Académico Viseu FC 1.30
#9 Sporting Braga 1.25
#10 FC Arouca 1.24
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 1.23
#12 CD Nacional 1.15
#13 Famalicão 0.99
#14 Marítimo 0.94
#15 Casa Pia 0.89
#16 Estoril Praia 0.85
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.54
League avg
1.31
Total
6.26 7 matches
Defence
1.77 xGA per match
#16/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Sporting Braga 0.65
#2 Benfica 0.65
#3 Santa Clara 0.69
#4 Vitória SC 0.77
#5 Sporting 0.79
#6 Gil Vicente 0.88
#7 FC Porto 0.98
#8 Famalicão 1.25
#9 Marítimo 1.32
#10 FC Arouca 1.38
#11 Estoril Praia 1.62
#12 CF Estrela Amadora 1.63
#13 Académico Viseu FC 1.71
#14 Moreirense 1.73
#15 FC Alverca 1.74
#16 Casa Pia 1.77
#17 CD Nacional 1.87
#18 Rio Ave 1.92
League avg
1.31
Total
12.37 7 matches
xG difference
-0.87 xGD per match
#16/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Benfica +1.66
#2 FC Porto +1.28
#3 Sporting +1.22
#4 Vitória SC +0.99
#5 Santa Clara +0.67
#6 Sporting Braga +0.60
#7 Gil Vicente +0.43
#8 FC Arouca -0.14
#9 Famalicão -0.26
#10 FC Alverca -0.34
#11 Marítimo -0.38
#12 CF Estrela Amadora -0.40
#13 Académico Viseu FC -0.41
#14 CD Nacional -0.72
#15 Estoril Praia -0.76
#16 Casa Pia -0.87
#17 Moreirense -1.06
#18 Rio Ave -1.38
League avg
0.00
Total
-6.11 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.91 xPts per match
#15/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Benfica 2.40
#2 FC Porto 2.22
#3 Sporting 2.17
#4 Vitória SC 1.96
#5 Santa Clara 1.93
#6 Sporting Braga 1.83
#7 Gil Vicente 1.76
#8 FC Arouca 1.37
#9 Famalicão 1.18
#10 CF Estrela Amadora 1.13
#11 Académico Viseu FC 1.08
#12 Marítimo 1.07
#13 CD Nacional 1.06
#14 FC Alverca 1.06
#15 Casa Pia 0.91
#16 Estoril Praia 0.82
#17 Moreirense 0.68
#18 Rio Ave 0.46
League avg
1.39
Total
6.40 vs 4 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Casa Pia's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Liga Portugal. They rank #16 for xG difference at -0.87 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 3 goals are 3.26 below 6.26 xG, while 4 points are 2.40 below 6.40 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.57 xG from penalties
3 6.26 -3.26 scored 3.26 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
16 12.37 +3.63 conceded 3.63 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
4 6.40 -2.40 2.40 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Casa Pia are 3.26 goals below their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
3
xG
6.26
Gap
-3.26
Sat 08/08 Mon 17/08 Mon 24/08 Sun 30/08 Sun 06/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.64 -0.76 -1.52 -2.29 -2.50 -3.09 -3.26 -0.64 -0.12 -0.76 -0.77 -0.21 -0.59 -0.17 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Casa Pia: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 08/08 Marítimo 0 0.64 -0.64 -0.64
Mon 17/08 Benfica 0 0.12 -0.12 -0.76
Mon 24/08 Gil Vicente 0 0.76 -0.76 -1.52
Sun 30/08 Moreirense 0 0.77 -0.77 -2.29
Sun 06/09 Vitória SC 0 0.21 -0.21 -2.50
Sat 12/09 FC Porto 1 1.59 -0.59 -3.09
Sun 20/09 Estoril Praia 2 2.17 -0.17 -3.26

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Casa Pia xG trend

Current form -0.92 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 7 matches. The worst was against Benfica on Mon 17/08 (-3.02).

npxG · last 6
0.68
npxGA · last 6
1.59
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.61 Sat 08/08 -3.02 Mon 17/08 -0.19 Mon 24/08 +0.50 Sun 30/08 -2.27 Sun 06/09 -0.95 Sat 12/09 +0.42 Sun 20/09 -0.87 season avg
Casa Pia: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 08/08 Marítimo 0.64 1.25 -0.61 -0.61
Mon 17/08 Benfica 0.12 3.14 -3.02 -1.82
Mon 24/08 Gil Vicente 0.76 0.95 -0.19 -1.27
Sun 30/08 Moreirense 0.78 0.28 +0.50 -0.83
Sun 06/09 Vitória SC 0.21 2.48 -2.27 -1.12
Sat 12/09 FC Porto 0.80 1.75 -0.95 -1.09
Sun 20/09 Estoril Praia 1.38 0.96 +0.42 -0.87

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.67 npxG and 1.54 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 4 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
+0.09 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
tied number 10 hardest of 18 in Liga Portugal
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.09 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · tied number 4 hardest of 18

  1. Estoril Praia Away −0.36
  2. FC Porto Home +0.47
  3. Vitória SC Away +0.40
  4. Moreirense Home −0.54
  5. Gil Vicente Away +0.06
  6. Benfica Home +0.79
  7. Marítimo Away −0.23

Last 5

+0.01 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 10 hardest of 18

  1. Estoril Praia Away −0.36
  2. FC Porto Home +0.47
  3. Vitória SC Away +0.40
  4. Moreirense Home −0.54
  5. Gil Vicente Away +0.06

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Casa Pia shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. Casa Pia take 10.3 shots a match (league 12.2) at 0.07 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #14 in Liga Portugal for volume and #16 for quality. 60% of their shots come from inside the box (league 63%), and set pieces produce 26% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.3 shots per match
#14/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Benfica 19.1
=1 Vitória SC 19.1
#3 FC Porto 16.0
#4 Gil Vicente 14.0
#5 Sporting 13.4
=6 CF Estrela Amadora 13.1
=6 Santa Clara 13.1
#8 Estoril Praia 12.7
#9 Sporting Braga 12.5
#10 FC Alverca 11.9
#11 FC Arouca 10.9
#12 CD Nacional 10.7
#13 Marítimo 10.4
#14 Casa Pia 10.3
#15 Famalicão 9.6
#16 Académico Viseu FC 9.3
#17 Moreirense 7.3
#18 Rio Ave 7.1
League avg
12.2
Total
72 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.07 npxG per shot
#16/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Académico Viseu FC 0.15
#2 Sporting 0.14
#3 FC Porto 0.12
#4 Benfica 0.11
#5 FC Alverca 0.11
#6 FC Arouca 0.11
#7 CD Nacional 0.10
#8 Sporting Braga 0.10
#9 Santa Clara 0.10
#10 Famalicão 0.09
#11 CF Estrela Amadora 0.09
#12 Vitória SC 0.09
#13 Marítimo 0.08
#14 Moreirense 0.08
#15 Gil Vicente 0.07
#16 Casa Pia 0.07
#17 Estoril Praia 0.06
#18 Rio Ave 0.06
League avg
0.10
Total
4.69 npxG from 72 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.7 shots per match
=15/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Vitória SC 7.1
#2 Benfica 7.6
#3 Santa Clara 8.1
#4 Sporting 8.6
#5 Sporting Braga 8.7
#6 Gil Vicente 9.8
#7 FC Porto 10.7
#8 CF Estrela Amadora 11.6
#9 Famalicão 12.0
#10 FC Alverca 12.1
#11 Marítimo 13.4
#12 Estoril Praia 13.9
#13 FC Arouca 14.9
#14 CD Nacional 15.1
=15 Casa Pia 15.7
=15 Moreirense 15.7
#17 Rio Ave 16.9
#18 Académico Viseu FC 17.6
League avg
12.2
Total
110 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#11/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Liga Portugal, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Sporting Braga 0.06
#2 Santa Clara 0.07
#3 Gil Vicente 0.08
#4 Sporting 0.08
#5 FC Porto 0.08
#6 Académico Viseu FC 0.08
#7 Benfica 0.09
#8 Marítimo 0.09
#9 FC Arouca 0.09
#10 Famalicão 0.10
#11 Casa Pia 0.10
#12 Moreirense 0.10
#13 CD Nacional 0.10
#14 Estoril Praia 0.11
#15 Rio Ave 0.11
#16 Vitória SC 0.11
#17 CF Estrela Amadora 0.12
#18 FC Alverca 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
10.81 npxGA from 110 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

60% inside the box

League avg 63%

From 43 of 72 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

65% allowed inside the box

League avg 63%

From 71 of 110 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

74% open play · 26% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.2 of 4.7 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

74% open play · 26% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.7 of 10.7 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Casa Pia home and away xG

Casa Pia per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 0.83 0.95
xGA / match 1.97 1.61
xGD / match -1.15 -0.67
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.89 0.93

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Casa Pia match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
4
xG / match
0.95
xGA / match
1.61
xGD / match
-0.67
Points
4 of 12
  1. Sun 20/09 Estoril Praia A xG 2.17 P xGA 0.95 xGD +1.22
  2. Sun 06/09 Vitória SC A xG 0.21 xGA 2.48 xGD -2.27
  3. Mon 24/08 Gil Vicente A xG 0.76 xGA 1.74 P xGD -0.98
  4. Sat 08/08 Marítimo A xG 0.64 xGA 1.28 xGD -0.64

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Casa Pia in Liga Portugal

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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