Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 21:30
20d 18h to kick-offGil Vicente – FC Porto
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Gil Vicente
- 30%
- Draw
- 34%
- FC Porto
- 36%
| Gil Vicente | Draw | FC Porto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.37 | 2.95 | 2.75 |
- Total goals
- 2.20
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Porto
36% FC Porto to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 8th
- FC Porto attack v Gil Vicente defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 9th
- FC Porto defence v Gil Vicente attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.34 vs +0.43
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.04 – 1.16
- Gil Vicente v FC Porto
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Gil Vicente | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.31 · 7th | (better) 2.26 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.88 · 6th | 0.98 · 7th |
| xGD / match | +0.43 · 7th | (better) +1.28 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.76 · 7th | (better) 2.22 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.43 | (better) +1.34 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- FC Porto clean sheet
- 33%
- FC Porto 2+ goals
- 33%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.3%
- 0:0
- 11.3%
- 0:1
- 10.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Gil Vicente sample
- 20 matches
- FC Porto sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Gil Vicente
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Porto
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.