Gil Vicente 1:1 Marítimo: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

Gil Vicente Home 1.20 xG · 19 shots

Marítimo Away 0.86 xG · 10 shots

11 Gil Vicente had the better chances, but it finished level

Gil Vicente were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. It finished 1–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.

Goals

7' Murilo Gil Vicente · 0.25 xG chance 1–0
90' Israel Ayuma Marítimo · 0.20 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Gil Vicente: 48%
Draw: 33% What happened
Marítimo: 19%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Gil Vicente 1.29 1.20 -0.09

Marítimo 0.77 0.86 +0.09

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Gil Vicente Marítimo

Shots: 19; 10
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 11; 7
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.07; 0.72
Set-piece xG: 0.13; 0.14
Penalties: —; —

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.06 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Gil Vicente
Marítimo
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Gil Vicente

1.22 xG created 1.01 xGA

L 0.68 created, 1.65 conceded against Sporting
W 1.66 created, 0.19 conceded against Rio Ave
W 1.74 created, 0.76 conceded against Casa Pia
D 0.28 created, 0.23 conceded against Famalicão
L 1.88 created, 0.33 conceded against Académico Viseu FC
L 1.11 created, 2.90 conceded against Benfica

Marítimo

0.95 xG created 1.34 xGA

W 1.28 created, 0.64 conceded against Casa Pia
W 1.61 created, 0.59 conceded against Famalicão
D 1.28 created, 1.84 conceded against Académico Viseu FC
L 0.67 created, 1.65 conceded against FC Arouca
L 0.12 created, 1.31 conceded against Benfica
L 0.76 created, 2.00 conceded against Moreirense

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged4 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Gil Vicente against Marítimo before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.40	+12.7%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	1.62	+6.4%	Won
Gil Vicente at most 1 goal	1.67	+3.5%	Won
Marítimo at most 1 goal	1.22	+1.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Gil Vicente	47.6%	47.9%	−0.3 pp	2.10
Draw	33.2%	27.5%	+5.7 pp	3.02
Marítimo	19.2%	24.6%	−5.4 pp	5.21

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Gil Vicente to score	75.3%	75.0%	+0.3 pp	1.33
Gil Vicente not to score	24.7%	25.0%	−0.3 pp	4.05
Marítimo to score	56.6%	58.9%	−2.3 pp	1.77
Marítimo not to score	43.4%	41.1%	+2.3 pp	2.30
Both teams to score	44.5%	46.7%	−2.2 pp	2.25
Both teams not to score	55.5%	53.3%	+2.2 pp	1.80
Gil Vicente 2+ goals	37.9%	44.3%	−6.3 pp	2.64
Gil Vicente at most 1 goal	62.1%	55.7%	+6.3 pp	1.61
Marítimo 2+ goals	17.1%	23.4%	−6.3 pp	5.83
Marítimo at most 1 goal	82.9%	76.6%	+6.3 pp	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	65.2%	66.3%	−1.1 pp	1.53
Under 1.5 goals	34.8%	33.7%	+1.1 pp	2.87
Over 2.5 goals	34.1%	41.8%	−7.7 pp	2.93
Under 2.5 goals	65.9%	58.2%	+7.7 pp	1.52

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Gil Vicente sample: 20 matches
Marítimo sample: 6 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Marítimo has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.