Sporting Braga 1:2 Gil Vicente: xG & match report · Liga Portugal

Monday, 19/10/2026 at 21:15

Full time

Match report · Liga Portugal

Sporting Braga Home 1.37 xG · 18 shots

Gil Vicente Away 1.52 xG · 11 shots

12 The chances were evenly matched

Sporting Braga were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. Gil Vicente won 2–1. The biggest difference was Gil Vicente's attack: 1.52 xG against 0.78 projected (+0.74).

Goals

33' Pau Víctor Sporting Braga · 0.40 xG chance 1–0
49' Walace dos Santos França Gil Vicente · 1.00 xG chance 1–1
72' Diogo Travassos (o.g.) Gil Vicente 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Sporting Braga: 44%
Draw: 35%
Gil Vicente: 21% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Sporting Braga 1.18 1.37 +0.19

Gil Vicente 0.78 1.52 +0.74

Gil Vicente produced 0.74 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Sporting Braga Gil Vicente

Shots: 18; 11
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 11; 5
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.14
Open play xG: 1.02; 1.44
Set-piece xG: 0.39; 0.10
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.39 for Sporting Braga and 1.52 for Gil Vicente.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.96 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Sporting Braga
Gil Vicente
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sporting Braga

1.25 xG created 0.77 xGA

W 0.83 created, 0.23 conceded against Vitória SC
W 2.27 created, 1.08 conceded against FC Alverca
L 0.61 created, 0.57 conceded against CF Estrela Amadora
W 1.79 created, 0.75 conceded against Estoril Praia
D 0.50 created, 1.04 conceded against Santa Clara
L 1.50 created, 0.95 conceded against Sporting

Gil Vicente

1.28 xG created 1.03 xGA

W 1.74 created, 0.76 conceded against Casa Pia
D 0.28 created, 0.23 conceded against Famalicão
L 1.88 created, 0.33 conceded against Académico Viseu FC
L 1.11 created, 2.90 conceded against Benfica
D 1.20 created, 0.86 conceded against Marítimo
W 1.49 created, 1.09 conceded against Moreirense

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Sporting Braga: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 qualified edges flagged2 won4 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Sporting Braga against Gil Vicente before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Sporting Braga not to score	5.50	+53.1%	Lost
Sporting Braga at most 1 goal	2.00	+39.5%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	3.00	+31.2%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+30.6%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.62	+27.4%	Lost
Gil Vicente to win	5.50	+17.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sporting Braga	43.8%	56.8%	−13.1 pp	2.28
Draw	34.8%	26.4%	+8.4 pp	2.87
Gil Vicente	21.4%	16.8%	+4.6 pp	4.67

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sporting Braga to score	72.2%	82.8%	−10.6 pp	1.39
Sporting Braga not to score	27.8%	17.2%	+10.6 pp	3.59
Gil Vicente to score	57.1%	55.7%	+1.4 pp	1.75
Gil Vicente not to score	42.9%	44.3%	−1.4 pp	2.33
Both teams to score	43.2%	48.0%	−4.8 pp	2.31
Both teams not to score	56.8%	52.0%	+4.8 pp	1.76
Sporting Braga 2+ goals	33.6%	53.7%	−20.1 pp	2.98
Sporting Braga at most 1 goal	66.4%	46.3%	+20.1 pp	1.51
Gil Vicente 2+ goals	17.6%	20.8%	−3.2 pp	5.69
Gil Vicente at most 1 goal	82.4%	79.2%	+3.2 pp	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	62.5%	68.7%	−6.2 pp	1.60
Under 1.5 goals	37.5%	31.3%	+6.2 pp	2.67
Over 2.5 goals	31.1%	41.8%	−10.6 pp	3.21
Under 2.5 goals	68.9%	58.2%	+10.6 pp	1.45

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sporting Braga sample: 20 matches
Gil Vicente sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 14 minutes before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.