Monday, 02/11/2026 at 21:15
28d 8h to kick-offGil Vicente – Vitória SC
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Gil Vicente
- 31%
- Draw
- 34%
- Vitória SC
- 35%
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Vitória SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.22 | 2.94 | 2.87 |
- Total goals
- 2.18
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Vitória SC to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 8th
- Vitória SC attack v Gil Vicente defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 9th
- Vitória SC defence v Gil Vicente attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.87 vs +0.43
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.05 – 1.13
- Gil Vicente v Vitória SC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Gil Vicente | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.31 · 7th | (better) 1.77 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 0.88 · 6th | (better) 0.77 · 4th |
| xGD / match | +0.43 · 7th | (better) +0.99 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.76 · 7th | (better) 1.96 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.43 | (better) +0.87 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- Vitória SC clean sheet
- 32%
- Vitória SC 2+ goals
- 31%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.4%
- 0:0
- 11.5%
- 0:1
- 10.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Gil Vicente sample
- 20 matches
- Vitória SC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Gil Vicente
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Vitória SC
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.