Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 17:15
33d 16h to kick-offStade Brestois – Olympique Lyonnais
Model updated 6 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Stade Brestois
- 40%
- Draw
- 31%
- Olympique Lyonnais
- 29%
| Stade Brestois | Draw | Olympique Lyonnais | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.49 | 3.23 | 3.47 |
- Total goals
- 2.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Stade Brestois
40% Stade Brestois to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 6th
- Stade Brestois attack v Olympique Lyonnais defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 8th
- Stade Brestois defence v Olympique Lyonnais attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.78 vs +0.58
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.39 – 1.17
- Stade Brestois v Olympique Lyonnais
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Stade Brestois | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.94 · 4th | 1.79 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 1.19 · 4th | (better) 1.17 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.75 · 3rd | +0.62 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.78 · 4th | (better) 1.81 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.78 | +0.58 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Stade Brestois clean sheet
- 28%
- Stade Brestois 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 8.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Stade Brestois sample
- 20 matches
- Olympique Lyonnais sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Stade Brestois
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Olympique Lyonnais
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.