Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:30
20d 13h to kick-offDAC 1904 – MFK Ružomberok
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- DAC 1904
- 63%
- Draw
- 22%
- MFK Ružomberok
- 15%
| DAC 1904 | Draw | MFK Ružomberok | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.59 | 4.53 | 6.72 |
- Total goals
- 3.38
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans DAC 1904
63% DAC 1904 to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 7th
- DAC 1904 attack v MFK Ružomberok defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 9th
- DAC 1904 defence v MFK Ružomberok attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.63 vs -0.09
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.26 – 1.12
- DAC 1904 v MFK Ružomberok
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | DAC 1904 | MFK Ružomberok |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.10 · 3rd | 1.78 · 5th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.38 · 4th | 1.84 · 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.73 · 3rd | -0.06 · 6th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.91 · 3rd | 1.38 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.63 | -0.09 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- DAC 1904 clean sheet
- 30%
- DAC 1904 2+ goals
- 68%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 1:1
- 10.2%
- 3:1
- 8.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- DAC 1904 sample
- 20 matches
- MFK Ružomberok sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · DAC 1904
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · MFK Ružomberok
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.