Wednesday, 28/10/2026 at 18:00
24d 17h to kick-offFC Košice – DAC 1904
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Košice
- 32%
- Draw
- 25%
- DAC 1904
- 43%
| FC Košice | Draw | DAC 1904 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.14 | 3.95 | 2.33 |
- Total goals
- 3.59
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams to score
- 74%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans DAC 1904
43% DAC 1904 to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 11th
- DAC 1904 attack v FC Košice defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 5th
- DAC 1904 defence v FC Košice attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.63 vs -0.47
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.67 – 1.92
- FC Košice v DAC 1904
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Košice | DAC 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.69 · 7th from 4 matches | (better) 2.10 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 2.48 · 12th from 4 matches | (better) 1.38 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.79 · 11th from 4 matches | (better) +0.73 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.16 · 7th from 4 matches | (better) 1.91 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.47 | (better) +0.63 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- DAC 1904 clean sheet
- 16%
- DAC 1904 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 28%
- Both teams to score: no
- 26%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 9.5%
- 2:2
- 8.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Košice sample
- 20 matches
- DAC 1904 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Košice
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · DAC 1904
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.