Monday, 02/11/2026 at 18:30
Full timeArda Kardzhali 2:1 FK Septemvri Sofia
Arda Kardzhali were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Arda Kardzhali's attack: 2.46 xG against 1.36 projected (+1.10). FK Septemvri Sofia produced 1.94 xG against 0.91 projected (+1.03).
The model against the result
- Arda Kardzhali
- 46% What happened
- Draw
- 32%
- FK Septemvri Sofia
- 22%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Arda Kardzhali produced 1.10 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 5
- On target
- 3
- 4
- Inside the box
- 9
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.19
- 0.39
Recent form
1.42 xG created 1.40 xGA
- W 1.39 created, 1.23 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- L 3.71 created, 0.82 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
- L 0.87 created, 3.10 conceded against CSKA Sofia
- D 1.38 created, 1.34 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- L 0.05 created, 1.21 conceded against Ludogorets
- D 1.10 created, 0.72 conceded against Levski Sofia
1.32 xG created 1.35 xGA
- D 0.95 created, 0.46 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- L 1.37 created, 0.99 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- L 0.50 created, 2.55 conceded against Ludogorets
- L 1.08 created, 1.53 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
- L 3.16 created, 0.97 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- L 0.87 created, 1.60 conceded against Cherno More Varna
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged2 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.90 | +22.3% | Lost |
| FK Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals | 5.00 | +13.6% | Lost |
| FK Septemvri Sofia to win | 5.25 | +10.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | +10.5% | Won |
| FK Septemvri Sofia to score | 1.80 | +8.3% | Won |
| Arda Kardzhali at most 1 goal | 1.80 | +3.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 45.7% | 58.8% | −13.1 pp | 2.19 |
| Draw | 32.2% | 23.7% | +8.5 pp | 3.11 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia | 22.2% | 17.6% | +4.6 pp | 4.51 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali to score | 77.1% | 79.2% | −2.1 pp | 1.30 |
| Arda Kardzhali not to score | 22.9% | 20.8% | +2.1 pp | 4.36 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia to score | 62.7% | 51.5% | +11.2 pp | 1.59 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia not to score | 37.3% | 48.5% | −11.2 pp | 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 42.3% | +7.9 pp | 1.99 |
| Both teams not to score | 49.8% | 57.7% | −7.9 pp | 2.01 |
| Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals | 40.4% | 48.5% | −8.2 pp | 2.48 |
| Arda Kardzhali at most 1 goal | 59.6% | 51.5% | +8.2 pp | 1.68 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals | 22.7% | 18.9% | +3.8 pp | 4.40 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia at most 1 goal | 77.3% | 81.1% | −3.8 pp | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | 68.7% | +1.8 pp | 1.42 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 31.3% | −1.8 pp | 3.39 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.1% | 42.9% | −2.8 pp | 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.9% | 57.1% | +2.8 pp | 1.67 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Arda Kardzhali sample
- 20 matches
- FK Septemvri Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 29 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.